GW 34: Liverpool vs. Chelsea

This weekend we have a massive top of the table clash coming up for us as Chelsea travel to Anfield to face Liverpool on Sunday. Both sides are enduring their own separate battles at the moment as Liverpool have a big chance of winning the league this year while Chelsea are fighting for a place in the top 4 in order for them to obtain Champions League football for next season. The sides are quite close in the league table as has been the case over the past few seasons and in the last 6 matches between them, Chelsea have won two while Liverpool have won one with the other three coming out as draws. One of these draws came in the reverse fixture earlier this campaign in which they drew 1-1 in a truly dramatic match that saw Liverpool come back in the 89th minute. In this game Liverpool edged possession with 53% while they also took 13 shots to Chelsea’s 10 and managed 6 on target compared to Chelsea’s 4, however, Chelsea did come out on top in terms of expected goals, winning 1.78 to 1.74 in this regard. This shows that the match was incredibly even and that a draw was probably a fair result considering how the match panned out, and now that Liverpool are at home and they have the better form, the odds are in their favour for this tie.

Liverpool have had an extraordinary season up to this point, and now, with only 5 games left in their season they are so close to achieving their goal of winning their first ever Premier League title. They are currently 2 points clear of City at the top of the table having played a game more and with this match being their most difficult for the rest of the season it could be crucial in deciding who becomes Premier League champion. Liverpool come into this match at the perfect time as they’ve won all of their last 4 Premier League matches beating Tottenham in this period and they have the form that would suggest a win for them. They will also be quite proud of their performance last week as they beat Southampton 3-1 and although it wasn’t their strongest match they’ve played it’s important that they are grinding out the wins during the end of the season. They’ll have to be prepared for a much different challenge in their next match though as Southampton were very focused on counter-attacking quickly while Chelsea will be trying to keep possession, and Klopp will definitely have to change his tactics in order to accomodate for the different style of play. This could involve playing the wingers higher so that they can spray balls out to them in order to play quickly, while they might also choose to play with a midfield more adept at transitioning the ball instead of possession based players.

Jordan Henderson could be very important in the way that they set up as in recent matches he has proved to be very influential, putting in a few top class performances. This is because he is starting to be used in a higher role meaning his transitional abilities are coming to the surface and he’s been much more involved in the attack while also keeping his strong defensive presence of course. He has only been making 0.5 key passes per 90 this season but in his last Premier League match, in which he played more advansively, he came on as a sub, scoring a goal and grabbing an assist. He could be in charge of springing Liverpool’s counter-attacks as he has the defensive ability to win the ball back in good areas before he can use his range of passing to help his side progress. Another midfielder who’s been in good form for Liverpool is Naby Keita, who after not scoring a single goal in his first 37 games for Liverpool, has now scored in each of his last 2. Because of this form he will likely be included in this match unless Klopp plans on resting him for their Champions League fixture and if he does play, you would expect him to be employed as the most advanced central-midfielder, who will use his dribbling abilities to transition the ball into attack. He is making 1.5 dribbles per 90 as well as 0.5 key passes and now that he is starting to hit his form you would expect this to rise, and he can really be the link between midfield and attack for Liverpool in this match.

Chelsea have had a largely disappointing season and especially considering their fantastic start to the campaign they would have been very alarmed at the state of the club at the moment. Although they have climbed back up to 3rd they haven’t been playing well at all over the last few months and they’re only 5 points ahead of 6th place, having played a game more than the other teams competing for the Champions League places. They have been in good form though as Sarri seems to have finally switched his tactics slightly and they’ve managed to go on a run of 3 consecutive victories in the Premier League and they might be back on track, now that some of their confidence has been restored. Their last match was a 2-0 win against West Ham in which they were always quite comfortable, managing 54% possession while also taking 7  more shots with 5 more coming on target in what was one of their better performances of late. They’ll have to readjust for this game though as Liverpool are a much stronger side, particularly in defence and Chelsea will have to find the balance between attack and defence if they are to win this match. This could involve giving Kante more defensive responsibilities while also finding attacking routes that don’t involve Hazard as frequently.

Ruben Loftus-Cheek is finally getting chances to prove himself in this Chelsea squad and he using his chances superbly having scored 2 and assisted 2 over his last 3 matches despite only playing 180 minutes over this period. This form from Loftus-Cheek is one of the main reasons that Chelsea have been able to bounce back so effectively as he provides another creative outlet and also takes some of the defenders away from star man Eden Hazard in order to allow the Belgian more space. This season he is actually contributing at an incredibly high rate, with 1.02 direct goal contributions per 90 minutes, however, this is far exceeding his expected goals tally as he has a combined expected goals and assists of 0.48 per 90, which is still quite good, but it also shows that he’s been slightly lucky. Another youngster who has been prospering in recent games is Callum Hudson-Odoi who has only played 294 minutes in the league this season with 176 of these coming in Chelsea’s last 2 games. In these last 2 matches he has made 6 key passes as well as taken 4 shots and although there is only a very limited sample size, he looks like an extremely promising player who could be important in breaking down such a solid defensive unit. The main thing that these two players have in common is that they are both very exciting to watch while they are also attack minded and with both of them playing, a lot of the attacking burden is taken off Hazard, allowing him and the entire team to play better and giving Chelsea a whole new offensive dimension.

Liverpool are looking very good in terms of injuries as almost their whole senior squad should be fit for this match barring any late issues that could occur. Alex-Oxlade Chamberlain is still suffering from his long term injury but he has returned to training by this point and it’s possible, although unlikely, that he could get back into the squad for the first time in a year. Elsewhere Adam Lallana is currently enduring a slight knock but he should be able to play, and even if he wasn’t available Liverpool have plenty of options in his position. Chelsea are in a similar position in terms of injuries and they honestly have an even better situation with only Ampadu potentially missing this match. Even this isn’t certain though and if Sarri wanted to play him he would probably be available for the match, however, he has rarely been used this campaign. Because neither team is facing too many injury problems we should be able to witness quite a good game with some very high class players involved, however, due to the midweek European fixtures both last week and in the upcoming one, we could see some players being rested. This should be more of a problem for Liverpool though as they used a much stronger lineup in their first leg tie while you could see that Chelsea were already resting some of their key players, and the fatigue that Liverpool’s players are potentially facing could give them a disadvantage.

This massive fixture towards the end of the season could define campaigns, not only for the teams involved, but also for the other sides that could be affected by this result. This means that the home advantage Liverpool have in this match is of astronomical importance to the league as they are undefeated in their last 37 Premier League home matches while they’ve won 14 and drawn 2 of their 16 home matches this season. They have also scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 9 home matches proving that they are consistently performing at Anfield which will definitely be worrying for this somewhat struggling Chelsea side. Chelsea have not been convincing when away this season, especially in recent weeks and they’ve actually lost 4 of their last 6 away games in what has been an incredibly poor away period for them. Also, when you look at Chelsea’s attack over the course of the season you can’t really see them breaking through Liverpool’s backline unless Hazard does something insane, as Liverpool have only conceded 10 goals when at home this season. Because of this, I’m predicting a 2-0 win in favour of Liverpool.