GW 33: Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace

The Premier League is straight back with us after a weekend filled with drama and on Wednesday Spurs take on Palace in a London derby. Tottenham are currently well above their city rivals in the league with 25 points and 10 places separating the sides, however, based on recent form Palace look equal than their opponents if not better. Tottenham have firmly dominated this fixture in the past though with Spurs winning all of the last 5 Premier League games between them while also managing to win 11 of their total 19 Premier League meetings. Also, each of these last 5 were all won by a scoreline of 1-0 showing that Spurs have been very consistent over this period but also that Palace have never been outclassed by their opponents and it’s stayed a tense fixture for some while now. When the sides last met in the Prem Spurs won, as you might have guessed, by a scoreline of 1-0 in a match in which Spurs were the better side, however, by a slight margin. The sides took an equal number of shots in the match while Crystal Palace actually managed 3 more of theirs on target but expected goals shows that Tottenham were getting into the better shooting positions, predicting a 1.55 to 0.69 scoreline. Tottenham were also far more dominant in terms of possession while they managed to shut down Palace’s attacks at almost double the rate that Palace managed and in the end, although they weren’t convincing, they did deserve the win.

Spurs were looking like an incredibly promising side during the middle part of the season and at one point large amounts of people were even touting them as potential title challengers but in recent weeks we’ve seen a massive drop off in form from them. They have now failed to win each of their last 5 Premier League matches and even worse they’ve lost 4 of these and although they have had a difficult run of games against a couple of inspired teams they can’t afford to crumble at this stage, with the Champions League spots just on the horizon. They actually played quite well in their last match and many may argue that they were unlucky to have lost 2-1, albeit to a very high quality Liverpool side. Tottenham managed 52% possession in the match but Liverpool took 3 more shots and managed 1 more on target while expected goals shows that the quality of the shots that both teams were taking should have lead to the game finishing about level. This is because the predicted score was 1.09 to 1.05 in Liverpool’s favour highlighting just how close the match was and also that, based on the chances that the teams had, the match probably should have ended in a draw. Tottenham clearly need to improve on some of their previous performances and a way they could look to do this is by leaving one of either Eriksen or Alli out or perhaps dropping one of their strikers in order to provide more midfield cover. Although they haven’t been scoring freely, it’s been their defence that has caused them the most problems and if they could add another defensive midfielder to partner Sissoko, they should be more defensively sound while also being able to progress more from deep and obtain possession.

One way Tottenham could look to bulk up their midfield is by playing Dele Alli deeper and as less of a creative player in order for his strong defensive side to show. He is currently making an impressive 2.8 tackles and interceptions per 90 as he is largely being employed to win the ball further up the field and of course he is also a good progressor and he could see more of the ball if he plays in this deeper role. This switch could also allow Eriksen to flourish as although he is already in quite a free role at the moment, he’ll have even less defensive responsibility if Alli is covering and he’ll be able to focus solely on his distribution. If Pochettino does decide to do this though, someone will have to pick up Alli’s creative mantle and although Eriksen can do a job from deep, they need a player to transition through when further up the pitch. This player could be Lucas Moura and after he put in a good performance against Liverpool it is quite likely that he will be favoured again in this match. He has scored 7 in 19 starts this season and although he hasn’t necessarily been a stand out player for Spurs his numbers have stayed very consistent and with him making 1.2 key passes per 90 as well as 1.9 successful dribbles he has the potential to be the creative persona that Spurs need, especially considering that some of these stats would rise when playing in a different role.

Crystal Palace have had an alright season up to this point and although they are clearly avoiding the relegation zone which is always a goal, they would’ve been disappointed that they aren’t pushing on to that next level in order to compete with some of the mid table sides. Palace are actually on quite a good streak of form at the moment, winning 3 of their last 5 and 4 of their last 7 as they’ve only lost twice during this period in two difficult matches against Manchester United and Brighton. Their last match was a pretty comfortable 2-0 win against bottom side Huddersfield as they managed to score two goals late on in order to secure all three points. Huddersfield actually had more of the ball in this match with 52% possession but Palace took 4 more shots and while the sides managed the same amount of shots on target with 5, expected goals shows this fixture was firmly in Palace’s favour, predicting a final score of 2.85 to 0.93. To set up against Tottenham, Palace will have to be very flexible, as we’ve seen Spurs switch between many formations over the course of the season and Palace’s best chance of stopping their opponents might be if they continue with 4-3-3, while using a number of players who are adept in different positions. This way, if Tottenham continue with a three at the back Palace can adjust to play with more width by keeping Zaha wider than usual while also pushing their full-backs up field like Liverpool did. If Tottenham decide to go with a 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 Palace could then look to overload the center with the wingers cutting in more frequently while they also might use a more attacking midfield player to apply pressure to Spurs’ weakened midfield line.

Zaha will of course be key to this fluidity as he can fit into a number of roles within team while his undoubted quality has been crucial thus far. Although he hasn’t had his best of seasons, he is still contributing at quite a high rate with 8 goals and 3 assists after 27 matches while he’s also managing over 3 dribbles and over 2 shots per game. His ability to both play wide and as a more central player, usual off a striker, can help to make sure that Pochettino's in game adjustments aren’t as critical, as Palace will also be able to change their game plan throughout the match and since most of Palace's attack comes through Zaha, he’ll be largely influential in the way they play when going forwards. Schlupp could help his side in a similar way as he has the same flexibility that Zaha does in the way that he can play multiple positions. He has been used as a left-back, left-mid and center-mid over the course of this season and most recently he has been used on the left side of a three man midfield which is where he will likely be stationed in this match as well. He has been making an impressive 3.1 tackles and interceptions per 90 and although this will probably drop when playing in the midfield his defensive solidity should allow more attacking players in the side to flourish. He is also a decent progressor of the ball with 1.2 dribbles and 1 key pass per 90 and depending on the midfield line that Palace line up with he could be employed more defensively or as the more attacking of the three.

Tottenham have a number of worrying injuries coming into this match which will definitely harm their chances in the match. Aurier and Dier will miss the match for sure, while Llorente is a doubt and Winks, who is rumoured to have returned to fitness, could potentially miss out as well. Aurier’s absence doesn't pose much of the problem as they have adequate cover in his position, however, both Dier and Winks have been instrumental to Spurs’ season thus far and Llorente is a decent option off the bench as he provides a much different option to the ones that Spurs already have. If both Winks and Dier were to miss, Spurs could face similar troubles with filling the midfield and they could again struggle for defensive solidity without Dier’s presence, as he shields the backline well. Palace are doing much better in terms of injuries as only Sakho will miss this game, through a long term knee problem. This could be quite problematic for Crystal Palace though as Sakho still has the most minutes out of any Palace center-back despite missing the last few games, while his strong partnership with Tomkins before injury is one of the reasons that Palace have the 9th best defence in the division.

Tottenham do come into this match as favourites, however, by a small margin due to the terrible form that they are in while Palace are looking quite good, and in one of their better parts of the season. Tottenham will be playing their first match in their new stadium though, which could perhaps give them an extra boost as they’ll feel they need to impress their own fans on such a big night. It does raise the question though of whether or not being at home actually gives them much of an advantage in this match as although they will still have the majority of the fan base at the stadium they are not used to playing at this ground and therefore it could effectively act as an away stadium for both sides. Both of these sides have been relatively good when away this season with Tottenham actually the second best away side while Palace are 7th as they’re two of the only sides to have managed more points when away than when they’ve been at home. I do think that Tottenham will end their recent woes though while also breaking the streak of 1-0 wins with a 2-1 victory in this match.