GW 32: Manchester United vs. Watford

After the final international break of the season, the Premier League returns for us on the 30th of March with one of the games taking place being Manchester United against Watford. This fixture looks set to be one of the most entertaining of the weekend, as both sides have some top quality within their teams, while they’re also both quite high up in the table with United just outside the Champions League spots in 5th, while Watford are not far behind in 8th, as they’ve managed to be one of the most promising and successful mid table sides. Although Watford have been quite a force in the Premier League over the last few seasons, they’ve often struggled against United, and even though the Red Devils haven’t been at their best in recent years they’ve won 5 of their last 6 against Watford, having only lost 1 Premier League game against them in their entire history. Along with this long term dominance, Manchester United achieved a 2-1 win when these sides met earlier in the season, even though Watford were at home. Watford actually played quite well in this match though as they took 14 shots to United’s 9 while managing only 1 less on target, however, expected goals shows that Manchester United did play marginally better in terms of creating chances as the predicted score for the match was 1.65 to 1.18 in United’s favour, illustrating that the match was quite a tight affair. Considering United have got better since then and that Watford have fallen off the pace slightly, combined with the fact that the game will be played at Old Trafford and you can see the trend of United winning against the Hornets continuing on in this match.

United come into this match 5th in the Premier League and 2 points off the Champions League spots meaning that every game for them is crucial, and with their recent form not being completely convincing they might be slightly worried when looking at this match. Although they are still managing good results for the most part, their level of performance hasn’t been quite up to par as they’ve only achieved narrow wins against teams like Leicester, Southampton and Crystal Palace over the last few weeks. Combined with this, they’re not obtaining good results against the bigger sides as they drew with Liverpool a few weeks back and, in their last match, lost 2-0 to Arsenal. Against Arsenal, they played quite well offensively which you wouldn’t guess from looking at the scoreline as they missed a ton of decent opportunities that could have at least given them hope in the game. The teams took the same amount of shots while United actually hit the target once more than their opponents, but the difference in the match was Arsenal’s clinical ability and although expected goals shows a 2.37 to 1.53 scoreline in favour of United, they didn’t capitalize on the plethora of chances that they created for themselves which ended up costing them the match. In the upcoming match, the finishing will have to improve massively as Watford are actually quite a strong defensive side, only conceding 5 more than Arsenal this season, and chances might not be abundant. To solve this problem with finishing, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer might want to push Pogba further forwards as he is very good at scoring from a variety of ranges, and Solskjaer might also look to involve Rashford more frequently and keep him in a more central role in order to get the full use out of him.

Rashford has had a very big contribution to the side since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer arrived and like mentioned earlier, Watford have a strong defensive unit meaning his pace and finishing ability could be crucial in firing his side in front. Although he could be kept out of this match due to a slight ankle injury, Solskjaer will be doing everything possible to make sure he’s fit come game time as his 9 goals and 6 assists ranks 2nd in the United squad for direct goal involvements after only Paul Pogba. You can see why he is contributing so much as well, because he is taking 3.2 shots per 90 as well as dribbling 1.4 times and making 1.3 key passes, showing a solid consistency across the main abilities that a striker requires. For Rashford to find space, he could also look to go head to head with Watford center-back Mariappa, as Mariappa is a very big player and Rashford could use his pace to try to take advantage of Watford’s defence. On the other end of the field, Victor Lindelof will be important as he’s been United’s stand out defender up to this point. He is currently making 2.1 tackles and interceptions per match in the Premier League and although these aren’t particularly great numbers it’s been his consistency across the campaign that’s made him shine when compared to United’s other defensive options as he doesn’t tend to make many mistakes. Considering Watford are a counter-attacking side, his ability to stay safe at the back will be very handy and because of him Watford might find less opportunities than usual.

Watford have had a very good season by their standards and while they’ve floated just outside the top 10 ever since they’ve been promoted back to the Premier League, they look like they could finally break that streak and finish within the top half of the table. However, the middle of the table is very congested at the moment with very small point gaps between the sides and therefore every game becomes important for this Watford side. Watford’s form has been inconsistent lately and although they’ve managed 3 wins from their last 5, they’ve lost the other 2 which includes their last game which was a 3-1 defeat to the hands of Manchester City. In this last match Watford thoroughly deserved to lose and were quite simply outclassed by the Cityzens who took a total of 19 shots while Watford only managed 2 and expected goals really illustrates the gulf between the sides as the metric predicted a 3.76 to 0.41 scoreline. In the match Watford were clearly just hoping to shut down their opponents but against United they should try to play with a more expansive approach in order to capitalize on United’s defensive frailties and if they sit back again they could end up trapped in their own half like in the last match. Also, although Watford love to attack centrally, they might consider trying to spread their play more when on offence as United have played with a narrow formation recently and they might be able to find the most space in the wide areas, and this way they can also catch out United’s advansive full-backs when counter-attacking.

In order to capitalize on this wide space, Deulofeu could be crucial, as prior to this season he was playing as a conventional winger and he does tend to drift wide even when he’s been used more centrally this campaign. He has 7 goals and 5 assists in 1559 minutes this season which equates to a direct goal contribution every 130 minutes showing that he is often involved in attacking play for the Hornets. To further his usefulness, he is one of the paciest players in the Watford side and his ability to dribble and get the ball up the field quickly could be used to help Watford counter attack and h he could expose slower players like Matic in the middle of the park. Like always, Abdoulaye Doucoure will also be a big player for Watford in this match as his defensive contribution is unrivalled in their squad. From the heart of midfield, he is currently managing 3 tackles and interceptions per game which is reasonably high for a defensive midfielder and he’ll need to be at the top of his defensive game if he’s going to keep Paul Pogba quiet. Doucoure is also quite a good transitional player and although his midfield partner Etienne Capoue is more in charge of working the ball up field Doucoure is making 1 key pass per match and also 0.9 dribbles showing that if Watford are struggling to get out, he could help them progress.

United are currently enduring a large amount of injury problems and they’ll be hoping that the majority of their players can heal over the international break. Darmian, Shaw, Matic, Martial, Sanchez, Rashford and Lukaku are all suffering from injuries of various degrees of importance and you can see a clear problem in attack for United if these players can’t return on time. With Rashford, Lukaku, Sanchez and Martial all out, United lose virtually all of their viable striker options, however, while Sanchez will miss for sure, the other three all look relatively likely to return and there’s a very low chance that all of them will have to sit out, especially with extended rest time due to the international period. United also lose a lot of their threat from deep when Luke Shaw is not playing and although he also looks set to return, if his knock did rule him out, United could struggle with chance creation, especially when considering their other potential absentees. Watford are looking in much better shape when it comes to injuries as only Jose Holebas might miss the match. The left-back has a slight knock and if he were to miss Watford would lose a lot of their wide potential and the threat that he brings from the wing. Similarly to Luke Shaw, Holebas is a very forward thinking full-back and without him bombing down the flank Watford have almost no width due to their narrow formation, so this injury could cause Javi Gracia to change tactics in order to accomodate for the lack of width.

Both of these sides come into the match in strange periods of form, as while they’re playing reasonably well and getting promising results, their football has been slightly disappointing and underwhelming. While Manchester United are clearly the better side in terms of their positioning in the table and the players that they have at their disposal, the thing that keeps this particular fixture intriguing is the fact that United have a mistake in them as they still don’t look completely comfortable and even more importantly, Watford are great at capitalizing on mistakes and making the most out of other side’s flaws. Saying this, Manchester United have found some consistency in terms of results lately as they’re undefeated in their last 12 home Premier League matches while they’ve actually scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 home games. This also shows that Watford might have problems travelling, as United are a far superior side when they’re at Old Trafford and that’s why I’m predicting a narrow 2-1 victory in United’s favour.