GW 32: Liverpool vs. Tottenham

The main attraction from this week’s batch of Premier League fixtures is undoubtedly Liverpool against Tottenham as both of these sides are part of the Premier League’s elite group of teams. With Liverpool heavily involved in the title race while Spurs are just 3 points away from dropping out of the Champions League places, this match is crucial to both of the sides and it could potentially decide a number of key factors in the positioning of teams in the league table come the end of the season. These teams have been incredibly close in recent seasons but Liverpool have come out on top when facing their opponents winning 3 of their las 6 against Spurs while Spurs have only won 1. Liverpool also won the last fixture between the sides in a fairly convincing 2-1 victory in the early months of the campaign. Although Liverpool won by a small margin, they were in control for most of the match and having gone up in the first half, they managed to keep a clean sheet until the 92nd minute in which Lamela scored a goal from a difficult angle. Liverpool took 17 shots and an incredibly impressive 10 on target while Tottenham only managed 11 with 3 coming on target. Liverpool’s shot areas were also much better as they took 14 shots from inside the box while Tottenham took half this at 7 and expected goals highlights this with a 3.01 to 0.79 predicted score showing that Liverpool were in control for the most part like expressed earlier.

Liverpool are currently the league leaders in the Premier League, however, they have played once more than Manchester City who are their main competitors at this stage. Although Liverpool are in a bit of a rough spell compared to how they were doing earlier on in the season, they are still unbeaten in their last 10 league games while they’ve won 6 of these while they’ve also won both of their last 2. Their last match ended in a 2-1 win over Fulham and although they obtained a crucial result they will have been quite disappointed with the way they played, not reaching their usual high standards. In the match they got a goal in the first half before giving up their lead in the 73rd minute only to equalize through a James Milner penalty minutes later. Liverpool took 16 shots in the match to Fulham’s 7 while they managed 6 on target compared to Fulham’s 2 and although there is clearly a big gulf in terms of chance creation, Liverpool would have been hoping for more considering Fulham’s poor defensive record and they might feel it should have been even more comfortable. To improve for their upcoming match, they could look to bring in a more creative midfield presence by maybe giving players like Naby Keita and Xherdan Shaqiri another chance in the squad and Klopp might also look to push the full backs even higher than usual, as Tottenham have played very narrowly for the majority of the season so the Liverpool players might find an abundance of space in the wide areas. If they do do this then a 4-2-3-1 shape could actually fit perfectly with the two wide midfielder cutting inside while the full-backs make attacking runs and the two defensive midfielder cover the space that the full-backs have left.

Defensive midfielder Fabinho should be a key player for Liverpool in this match because he has the defensive quality that is necessary to sit back in cover for other players. Fabinho has been one of Liverpool’s stand out players this season and with him sitting in front of the backline he is making a superb 3.8 tackles and interceptions per 90 and while he’s been playing next to the more attacking minded Gini Wijnaldum recently, this defensive ability has been crucial. He is also a very good progressor of the ball as he is making over 70 passes per 90 minutes along with 0.8 key passes which is quite impressive considering his average positioning. Due to Liverpool’s potential style of play in this match, Fabinho will be largely in charge of regaining possession for his side but if Liverpool are penned back in this match, which is possible, then he’ll also have to help his side move forwards and play on the break. Another defensive player who has stood out for Liverpool is Virgil van Dijk who has arguably been the Premier League’s player of the season this campaign. Van Dijk has been superb throughout the season and he’ll have one of his toughest tasks yet in this match with both Kane and Son to watch out for. Another supreme quality that van Dijk possesses is his leadership ability and if Tottenham do try to avoid him by putting more pressure on Liverpool’s other centre-back he has the ability to organize his other teammates in a way that will make it difficult for Spurs, even without going through van Dijk himself.

Tottenham have had another good season by their standards and although they’re not challenging for the title any more they still look to be in a prime spot to make the Champions League. However, like mentioned earlier, they are still only 3 points ahead of 5th place and if they do lose this match they could potentially drop out of the Champions League places depending on the other results. Along with this they’ve been in poor form recently as they’re without a win in their last 4 matches while they’ve actually lost 3 of these as we’ve seen an insane drop off from where they were in the middle of the season. Their last match was another incredibly disappointing defeat as they lost 2-1 to 16th place Southampton. The worst part about this match was that Tottenham probably deserved to lose as they played quite poorly and never really threatened too heavily, taking 4 more shots and 1 more on target than their opponents. Expected goals also shows that Southampton actually managed the better chances with the metric predicting a scoreline of 2.08 to 1.27 in Southampton’s favour and although they’ve improved astronomically under Hasenhuttl this is still unacceptable from Tottenham. For their upcoming match they could look to bring Son back into the starting team as he was crucial during their hot streak, while they could also look to play Son further up the field so that he can perform at the level that he was earlier on.

Son is having arguably his best season yet and after his purple patch during the middle of the campaign he looked like Spurs’ best player by far. However, now that Kane has come back from injury, Son’s output has dropped significantly and this is probably due to the deeper role that he is being forced to play and the fact that he has to act as more of a creator when Kane is in the squad. During this down period for Son, although Kane is firing quite well Spurs as a whole are playing some of their worst football and you think that maybe Pochettino should look at changing Son’s role slightly in order for the team to get back on their feet, and he could even look to drop Kane deeper while Son plays as a more out and out forward. Dele Alli could be crucial in the revival of Son’s form because if Son is used as more of a striker Alli will have to cover the jobs that Son has been doing over the last few matches. Although Alli is often seen as a very offensive midfielder his defensive contribution is very impressive as he’s making 2.9 tackles and interceptions per 90 so you’d think that he could effectively fill the defensive void that Son leaves while he is also creating chances at a very high rate.

In terms of injuries Liverpool aren’t looking too bad as a few long term problems are still keeping players out while there are also some smaller issues. Both Oxlade-Chamberlain and Joe Gomez are going to miss the match and although they are both close to returning Klopp has said that they’re not yet ready to be played in this match. Alexander-Arnold, Keita and Shaqiri could also be missing as they all obtained smaller injuries prior to the international break and although they have now had some time off to heal it’s not certain that they will be available. If these players were to miss, Liverpool could see a massive drop in creativity throughout the side as these three have been some of the most progressive in the side with Alexander-Arnold playing as a very advanced full-back while both Keita and Shaqiri have played as the more attacking midfielder in a 3, with Shaqiri sometimes playing as a drifting right-midfielder with his job to take some of the creative burden of Salah. Tottenham have very few injury concerns compared to what they were dealing with a few weeks ago with only Aurier, Dier and Winks missing. While Aurier doesn’t pose much of a problem the absences of Dier and Winks will leave Spurs without a designated defensive midfielder and they could have to use one of either Wanyama or Skipp who have only played a combined 400 minutes in the Premier League this season. This will leave the defence without too much cover and if Firmino drops deeper for Liverpool he could expose this weakness.

Tottenham are the clear underdogs coming into this match due to their bad run of games recently as well as the fact that they are worse in the league table and also that they’re away from home. Liverpool have been absolutely incredible at home over the past couple of seasons and they’re actually unbeaten in their last 36 home Premier League matches while they’ve won 13 of their 15 at home this season with an average of 2.73 points per match when at Anfield. However, Tottenham are one of the best away sides in the league and they actually have the 2nd best away record in the PL after only Liverpool as they’ve managed 5 more points when away than when they’ve been at home. Saying this, Tottenham have now lost their last 3 away games while Liverpool have scored 2 or more in 7 of their last 8 home matches and this brings us back to the question of form, in which Liverpool look miles better despite not playing their best football of the season. Because Liverpool are at home while they are in much better form than their opponents, I’m going to go for a 2-0 win in favour of the Reds, bettering their earlier result against Spurs.