GW 30: Manchester City vs. Watford

After a frantic period of fixtures, the Premier League will return shortly next weekend as we’re without a midweek set of fixtures this week due to Champions League action. On Saturday, Manchester City vs. Watford is by far and away the most appealing fixture as both of these sides have had exceptional seasons so far. Manchester City are back on top of the Premier League after Liverpool drew with their rivals Everton, and they’ll be desperate to stay there by beating Watford. Manchester City have actually never lost a Premier League match against Watford and in the 9 matches they’ve played in the Premier League, City have won 7 with 2 draws. These 7 wins have come in all the last 7 games that they’ve played against each other with Manchester City unbeaten in their last 14 against Watford, and this extended run of dominance won’t exactly give the Watford players confidence coming into this match. The last match between them was relatively close as Manchester City came out on top 2-1 after conceding late on in the match. Expected goals also predicted a City win with the metric estimating a 2.52 to 1.67 scoreline in favour of the Cityzens. Although Manchester City were quite comfortable for the majority of the match, Watford started pushing on at the end as they managed 6 of their 11 shots after the 70th minute with 4 of them coming from after the 80th minute. This final surge shows that although Watford might not be on the technical level of City, they have the ability to challenge them and if they have this same fighting spirit, combined with a bit of luck of course, they could come out with a brighter result.

City are enjoying another fantastic Premier League season and with Liverpool playing poorly in recent games they’ve capitalized on their opportunity, going 1 point clear at the top of the table. Although they arguably have the harder run in until the end of the season, they’ll be feeling very confident that they can see it through with the fate of the league essentially in their hands. Liverpool played perfectly against Watford last week and Manchester City might look to replicate their strategy slightly in order to reach the same heights. They could achieve this by trying to play through the wide areas as Liverpool did, which could result in a switch back to a a 4 at the back formation after they’ve used a 3 at times over recent weeks. This way they can get their full backs in positions to cross, and maybe capitalize on Watford’s poor marking and high defensive line at the same time. With Laporte out injured, City did revert back to a 4 at the back in their last fixture against Bournemouth, in which they won 1-0. In this match, Manchester City were completely dominant with an insane 82% possession which resulted in an incredible statistic, as Bournemouth managed 0 shots, which is the first time that any home team have done so since records for the Premier League began. This is very promising for City, and although they only managed the 1 goal, they will have definitely been happy with their defensive performance and the way they managed to keep the ball. Watford are a team who like to counter attack though and whether this dominance will act as an advantage or disadvantage we’ll have to wait and see.

With Laporte missing through injury, even more emphasis will be place on centre-back John Stones. His defensive contribution hasn’t been superb this season, with him only making 1.4 tackles and interceptions per game, but this is definitely skewed by the amount of possession that City tend to have, as he isn’t needed defensively when City have so much of the ball. His on the ball play is definitely his strength and his distribution from deep is what Watford need to watch out for as he is making an incredible 89.5 passes per 90. Along with this, he is making just under 5 accurate long balls per match and is a large part of City’s recent dominant displays. If Stones plays at his best, City could do the same to Watford as they did to Bournemouth, by practically penning them in their own half through through careful deep passes. In attack, Sergio Aguero will be important as always. He has surpassed Mo Salah and is currently the Premier League’s top goal scorer this season with 18 goals while he is managing a direct goal contribution every 77 minutes. His underlying numbers back this up as well, as he is taking 3.7 shots per game, showing he still has the ability to find space inside the box and even more importantly, to finish these chances when required. With teams often employing deep blocks against City, his occasional moment of brilliance has won them matches time and time again and we could see this repeated against an organized defensive side.

Watford have been inconsistent this season, as would’ve been expected, yet they’ve greatly over achieved what would have been their targets at the beginning of the season as they’ve skyrocketed into 8th place, with the same amount of points as 7th place Wolves. They’ve actually been very good in recent games as well, winning 3 of their last 4 matches with their only loss in this period coming against 2nd place Liverpool, while they’ve managed to beat mid table sides Everton and Leicester. Watford’s 4-2-2-2 formation could actually work very well in this upcoming match as the amount of central players could be used to overwhelm City’s defensive midfield pivot who often plays a big role in Guardiola's system. Also, if Deulofeu drops deep like he has done recently, he could prove to be hard to mark, giving the midfield three another burden to deal with. The only problem is that this system works very well in possession which Watford won’t have much of in such a challenging match. This means they’ll have to alter their style of play slightly to find success on the break which they could do by playing Deulofeu slightly off to the right so that his pace can exploit Manchester City’s attacking left-back when Watford manage to counter. In their last match, Watford played very well as they achieved a 2-1 win over Leicester despite only having 39% possession which shows that they know how to soak up the type of pressure City could provide. Although Leicester had 14 shots to Watford’s 6, Watford somehow managed 3 more on target and expected goals had the game 1.45 to 0.83. This shows that Watford were crafting good opportunities for themselves despite not retaining much of the ball, which will be incredibly crucial if they want to get anything out of their upcoming match.

The aforementioned Deulofeu has been crucial since becoming a regular starter and his pace will be necessary for Watford to play on the break. In 19 Premier League starts, he has scored 6 and assisted 5 which equates to a direct goal contribution every 139.5 minutes as he has been one of Watford’s most productive attacking players as of late. He is making 1.9 dribbles per 90 as well and it’s this type of individual quality is needed to win against a team like City, which we’ve seen from teams like Crystal Palace and Leicester when they achieved success. If he can contribute in pressuring a weakened midfield line through dropping deep, Watford could end up having small patches of possession in the match which would be helpful in making sure that they’re not locked up in their own half like Bournemouth were. Against a team with such an array of attacking talent, the always reliable Abdoulaye Doucoure will play a big role in Watford’s performance. Doucoure plays alongside the slightly more offensive Etienne Capoue as part of a defensive midfield 2 and therefore a lot of the defensive responsibility falls on him from midfield. He is currently making 3.1 tackles and interceptions per match which is a reasonable number that will definitely rise in this match given how much they’ll be on the back foot for the majority of it. Given the creative threat of some of the City players, Doucoure’s defensive ability and also his match intelligence could prove to be crucial.

City are currently facing some massive injuries which could prove to make a difference in this match. Laporte, Stones, De Bruyne and Fernandinho could all potentially miss out, however, Stones looks likely to recover from his slight knock. Laporte will be a massive miss as his distribution from the back, although perhaps not as consistent as Stones’, can be deadly at times and his contribution from a 3 at the back formation showed his attacking quality. Fernandinho’s absence will provide another huge problem because without him Watford could be allowed more possession than they might have had if he was present. With both of these key figures missing, the main feature that they lose is the composure that allows them to dominate games so heavily, as both of these players are assured in possession while also calm defensively. The creative presence of De Bruyne will also be missed, however, City were managing alright without him at the beginning of the season and you’d expect them to be able to continue that here. While City are struggling, Watford are almost completely free when it comes to squad selection as only right-back Kiko Femenia could be absent. Still though, he is only enduring a slight illness and the chance that he sustains it all the way until the match on Saturday seems unlikely, meaning Watford should have a fully fit squad come game time.

Although City come into the game as clear favourites given their recent run of games and their position in the table, we’ve seen them falter against mid table sides before and with a number of key players out, Watford could upset the league leaders. Saying this, City have won all of their last 5 in the league while they’ve kept clean sheets in 6 of their last 8 showing an improved streak of defensive form. Interestingly, Watford are actually statistically the most central team in the Premier League with 31% of their attacking play coming through the center and City might look at this and find it pretty easy to defend as they could easily bring their midfielders into a more compact shape when defending and then expand when attacking. However, as is in the game in general, this advantage City have could be countered by Watford as if they break fast they might be able to catch City out before they can become compact again and therefore overloading through central areas. Although Watford are a strong side in a decent spell of form, it’s hard to look past the league leaders winning this one and I’m predicting 2-1 in favour of the home side.