GW 30: Chelsea vs. Wolves

In a weekend jam packed with tasty fixtures, Chelsea vs. Wolves seems to be one of a few stand out games. Chelsea and Wolves are very close in terms of placement in the table, however, Chelsea have been experiencing a major down period while Wolves are in good form at the moment, especially considering what their goals would have been at the beginning of the campaign. With Chelsea in 6th and Wolves in 7th they look very close when you take a quick glance at the table but in reality, Chelsea are still far exceeding Wolves as the teams are 13 points apart, which in a way really summarises the gulf in quality between the top and middle branches of the Premier League. These sides have played 9 times against each other in the Premier League’s history and in these mathes, Chelsea have won 7 with Wolves winning the other 2. However, one of these Wolves wins actually came in the reverse fixture between the sides in which Wolves managed a narrow 2-1 victory whilst they were at home. Chelsea actually dominated the match taking 17 shots to Wolves’ 6, however, they were only able to manage 3 on target while Wolves scored both of their 2. Expected goals also has this match down in Chelsea’s favour predicting a 1.11 to 0.68 scoreline showing that maybe a draw was a fair result based on the chances that the teams created. Also, this next match is in London and Chelsea might be feeling confident knowing that they have home advantage and that they’ve played well in this fixture in the past, despite not gaining any points.

Chelsea have had a season with many ups and downs and at the moment they are in the middle of one of these downs in terms of both on and off the field matters. While Chelsea have been handed a 2 window transfer ban and Mauricio Sarri’s job has been threatened due to his lack of stylistic flexibility, Chelsea have also endured a rough spell of play in the league as they’ve lost 3 of their last 6. Despite this though, they’ve turned their form around slightly as they’ve managed to win both of their last 2 (including an impressive victory over Spurs) after Sarri has made a few changes to help his side along. Although they persisted with a 4-3-3, Higuain has started getting used to playing in a Sarri system again meaning that he is increasingly allowing Hazard more freedom to roam which is being supported by the advansive left central midfielder and left back who can both work to fill in the space that Hazard has left open. The problem with this in terms of the upcoming match is that Doherty is likely to stay wide while either Neves or Moutinho will track Hazard meaning that the left flank won’t have as much space as they’re used to, limiting the threat of the left back. To fix this, they could try to overload one flank by having Hazard drift all the way over to the right in order to put pressure on Wolves’ left side of the field. Like mentioned earlier, Chelsea did manage a win against Fulham in their last match and although they did gain all three points they didn’t dominate as thoroughly as they would’ve liked to, with expected goal predicting it narrowly in their favour, so they’ll have to improve now that they have to play a much stronger side.

Jorginho plays a crucial role in Sarri’s system and against a solid defensive side, his passing ability could be used to both obtain possession and break through Wolves’ back line. With the criticism of Sarri, a lot of criticism has also fallen on Jorginho as his style of play almost perfectly symbolizes Sarri’s goals for the club as they both came from Napoli in the summer. Jorginho is famed for his passing ability and at the center of midfield he is almost completely in charge of Chelsea’s distribution from midfield which is shown by the 89 passes he is making per match. He also has a 90% pass accuracy which shows that although he might not be making the most difficult passes he is very assured in possession and can often help to build up the play. Along with this, he is quite strong defensive, despite common belief, as he is making 3.4 tackles and interceptions per match. From the base of midfield, in an attack minded Chelsea side, this defensive contribution will be important when Wolves break. Chelsea right back Cesar Azpilicueta will also be important from a defensive point of view as Wolves have players like Jonny and Jota who will be attacking down their left hand side. He is making a very impressive 3.8 tackles and interceptions per match while playing for a possession based side and with him at the back, Jota won’t have as much room to work in. Although Azpilicueta can play more attackingly, you would expect him to sit back in defence in this match in order to nullify the threat of the Wolves attackers.

Wolves have had an extremely impressive and exciting first season back in the Premier League and while other newly promoted sides are struggling, they seem to be prospering when playing against stronger opposition. Wolves’ recent form has also been brilliant with them winning 4 of their last 7 while only losing 1 of these, surprisingly when they played against last place Huddersfield Town. In Wolves’ last match they played well as they achieved a comfortable 2-0 win against Cardiff which never looked in doubt as they managed to score twice with 18 minutes. Wolves had a number of simple chances in the match and while Cardiff only took one less shot, many of these were speculative while Wolves managed to find good positions inside the box throughout the match. This is highlighted by the expected goals predicted score of 3.20 to 0.70 as Wolves dominated in this area of the match as well. Their next match though will provide a very different challenge as against Cardiff Wolves managed 57% possession which definitely won’t happen when they play Chelsea, who are second in the league for average possession. The way Wolves could look to counter Chelsea’s possession play is by dropping their full backs deeper while having Jimenez and Moutinho pressuring Jorginho through man marking him. This is a tactic that many teams have found success with when playing Chelsea as they lose their width when the full backs are blocked off while they lose possession very frequently when Jorginho is marked out of the game. This also leaves Diogo Jota free to roam and his pace could cause problems on the break, with Jimenez in support.

The aforementioned Jota could be the key that Wolves use to unlock the Chelsea backline as he is in great form at the moment and he brings something really different to their squad. He has scored 6 while assisting 3 this season as his goal tally ranks second in the Wolves side after only Raul Jimenez. Against the solid defender Azpilicueta who was mentioned earlier, Jota’s pace will be necessary as well as his dribbling ability as he is making 1.8 dribbles per 90. Although there are perhaps better players in the Wolves line up, the reason Jota could prove to be more important in this match is his aforementioned abilities as they both contribute to playing on the break which Wolves will definitely have to do a fair bit of. Defensively, Ruben Neves could be the main man for Wolves as his positioning in the midfield is superb as he’s become the centerpiece of their 3-5-2 formation. He is currently making a superb 4.5 tackles and interceptions per game and with Hazard drifting inwards his tackling ability and more importantly, the way he times his tackles will be crucial for sure. Another important aspect of Neves’ game is that he contributes heavily in the transition, making nearly 1 key pass a game with his combination play with Jota often leading to Wolves playing successfully on the counter attack as his diagonal ball out to the left hand side is phenomenal.

Both teams have very little in terms of injuries and suspensions while, at the moment, it seems like Chelsea’s whole squad should be able to play in this match as they currently have no injury problems affecting their senior squad. Wolves are also looking good, however, Ryan Bennett is set to miss the match through suspension after obtaining 10 yellow cards this season. This could prove to be a big loss though, as Bennett has been absolutely crucial on the right side of Wolves’ back 3. What could prove to be even more of a problem is that Hazard likes to operate on the left wing, meaning that he’ll have a much easier task ahead of him as he’ll be going up against the weaker Romain Saiss or possibly Dendoncker if Nuno decides to withdraw him from midfield. Bennett has only missed one match prior to this while starting all of the others and when you look at his numbers you can see why he is so highly appreciated by Nuno as he is making 3.1 tackles and interceptions per match. So although neither team is missing too many players, Wolves will have one crucial player absent which could potentially change the balance of the match.

Wolves, even with being slight underdogs should have plenty of confidence coming into the match as their form suggests that they might be better than this Chelsea side, at least at the moment. Saying this, Chelsea’s home record cannot go under the radar as they are unbeaten in 16 of their last 17 home matches as although they’ve been heavily criticized lately, they’ve managed to keep a solid home record at least. This also includes 6 clean sheets from their last 8 home matches while they have also scored 2 or more in their last 3. All of this shows a certain consistency when playing at Stamford Bridge which Wolves will have to be wary of considering they aren’t one of the best away sides which was shown by their recent loss to Huddersfield. Because of this consistent home form from Chelsea, it doesn’t look likely that they’re going to lose this match, however, due to the form of Wolves I’m predicting a 1-1 draw which both teams might be happy with although it could hurt Chelsea’s chances of making the top 4.