GW 30: Arsenal vs. Manchester United

In a blockbuster Premier League weekend, Arsenal vs. Manchester United stands out above the other games as United travel to the Emirates this Sunday. Both sides are incredibly wrapped up in the race for Champions League football as they’re the two main candidates for the 4th place spot especially considering the drop off from Chelsea recently. The sides are a mere 1 point apart coming into this match with United edging ahead of the North London side after Arsenal drew with their rivals Tottenham last week, so this is Arsenal’s perfect opportunity to get back into the Champions League places if they could manage a win. Over the last few years, both clubs have been enduring some rough periods and some poor finishes, however, Manchester United have managed to come out on top in terms of this fixture as in the last 6 matches between the sides (all competitions) Manchester United have won 3 to Arsenal’s 1. The other 2 were draws and one of these came in the reverse fixture earlier this season in which the match finished 2-2 with United at home. However, a lot has changed since then with both teams managing to improve their form, while United have hired a new manager in this time, and with the match being played at the Emirates this time round, you’d be right to expect a completely different match to the one that was played in December.

Arsenal have had a rocky season so far but after recent performances they’ve started to gain the consistency that has been lacking for them in recent years. While at the beginning of the season it looked unlikely that they would make the top 4, they’ve fought back brilliantly and as mentioned earlier they’re only 1 point off at this stage as they’ve managed 5 wins from their last 7. Their last match was another good game from them as they deserved to win against their rivals Tottenham, however, the game came out as a 1-1 draw. Arsenal created brilliant chances in the match with expected goals giving the game a predicted score of 3.46 to 1.77 in their favour despite them only taking 9 shots in the match. In them game, Aubameyang missed a penalty before missing another great chance just seconds later while Lacazette also had a couple shots go wide from good positions as Arsenal’s finishing ability cost them dearly. You’d expect them to be able to create good chances again in this match as United aren’t the strongest defensive side and they’ll need to be much more clinical here. A bigger problem Arsenal might face in this match though is how they cope with the attacking power of United because in recent matches they’ve been playing very offensive with interchanging across the forward line. You’d expect that Arsenal might want to play a formation with three center midfielders as this way they could match United in the middle of the park while they keep one holding midfielder withdrawn in order to limit Pogba. They also most likely won’t go with a 3 at the back as this could leave them very exposed to United’s wide threat.

Lacazette could be important on the attacking end as he has had a great season this year, becoming arguably their most important player. He is currently averaging a direct goal contribution every 105 minutes in the league with 12 goals and 6 assists in 20 starts showing that he is contributing both in front of goal and from a creative standpoint. Because he has multiple strong points, he is a very versatile attacker as he can play by himself or in a 2 with Aubameyang depending on the game as he has the ability to drop deep to retain possession. He is taking nearly 3 shots per game as well and if he does play as a sole striker, which he might well do given the need for more defensive action against a stronger offensive side, his ability to get shots away will be necessary. On the other end of the field, in defence, Koscielny, who hasn’t had a superb season will need to be on top of his game. None of the Arsenal defenders have really stood out so far, however, Koscielny has shown some bright moments since returning from injury midway through the campaign. He’s only started 9 games so far, and in this time he has managed an impressive 3.3 tackles and interceptions per match while only being dribbled past 0.3 times a match showing that he is solid and quite consistent at the back. Another ability of Koscielny’s game is his threat off set pieces as he has actually managed 3 goals already in his time back and although he’s not the best finisher of the ball he’s a really hard worker and he seems to get into promising positions frequently which could be the difference in what should be a close match.

United have been enjoying a good spell of form in the league ever since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took charge and they’ve rocketed into the top 4, albeit still 13 points off the top of the table. They are still unbeaten in the Premier League since Solskjaer became manager with 10 wins and only 2 draws which came against Liverpool and Burnley. Their last Premier League match was a scuffed win against Southampton as they managed to come out on top 3-2 with an 89th minute winner from Lukaku. Expected goals predicted a 2.54 to 0.58 scoreline as United were actually quite unlucky to be pushed so hard, with Southampton scoring two wonder goals. Something that will be disappointing for the manager is the chances they didn't take though, as although they managed to exceed their xG value they missed a few simple chances including a Pogba penalty. Very similarly to Arsenal though, their attacking play and finishing shouldn’t provide the biggest problem for them in the upcoming match as their defence has been poor even through Ole’s reign. If United do want to play defensively in this match, they should probably use a central formation such as a 4-3-1-2 in order to capitalize on the fact that Arsenal have a lack of wide talent. Although both Mkhitaryan and Iwobi are wide players, Iwobi prefers to cut in on to his right foot while Mkhitaryan often plays as an attacking midfielder and likes to come more central while players like Aubameyang and Ozil have been played out wide in the past. This way, if they do go with a 4-3-1-2, United can work on congesting the middle of the park and therefore making it hard for creative players like Guendouzi, Ozil and Lacazette to find time to pick out their passes.

If Manchester United are to play with the 4-3-1-2, Andreas Pereira could be crucial as with the amount of injuries the squad has sustained he has been handed a starting role in the midfield three recently. He is making a very impressive 3.3 tackles and interceptions per 90, however, these numbers could be slightly misleading considering he has only played 389 Premier League minutes. Although he is famed for his attacking presence this defensive contribution could prove to be more important as, like mentioned earlier, Arsenal have a strong front line and with him shielding the back line, Arsenal’s attacking midfielders might not have as much time on the ball. As he proved against Southampton, he is also a great finisher of the ball and this ability, in a similar way to Koscielny, has a potential match winner within it. Another United player who has been finishing well lately is Marcus Rashford who has scored 6 Premier League goals since Solskjaer took charge. Rashford has always had the pure ability to be a great player and now that he has started to get regular minutes as the main striker he is prospering having scored 9 and assisted 6 this campaign. Although he hasn’t scored in his last 3, during two of these games he was injured (against Liverpool) or coming back from injury (against Crystal Palace), while in their last match he was employed as a second striker of sorts with Lukaku playing ahead of him while he roamed with more freedom. He might have to do the same in this match and his numbers show that he can definitely play in this more creative role as he is making 1.3 key passes per 90 while also making 1.4 dribbles.

In terms of injuries and suspensions neither team is looking brilliant. Arsenal have 4 players who are guaranteed to miss out as Holding, Bellerin and Welbeck are all suffering from long term injuries while Torreira is suspended until April 15th after he sustained a red card in their previous match. The biggest miss here will undoubtedly be Torreira as he is the perfect player to be employed as the deep holding midfielder because his defensive ability has been unrivaled in the Arsenal squad this season. With him making 4.1 tackles and interceptions per 90, he would have been well suited to go up against Pogba and while Guendouzi and Xhaka both have his progressive abilities they aren’t even close to how sound he is defensively. United are currently enduring an insane amount of injury problems which could possibly be down to the lack of rotation when Solskjaer first took charge. They have an incredible 8 potential absences with Jones, Valencia, Darmian, Matic, Herrera, Mata, Lingard and Sanchez all suffering from injuries of various degrees of seriousness. Valencia and Sanchez are going to miss for sure while Lingard, Mata and Darmian have slight chances of making it back with Herrera and Matic looking more likely to return. Although not all of these players are super important to the squad, the sheer amount of issues that they’re facing makes it very hard for Solskjaer to pick a strong starting 11 and with many of these coming in midfield they might suffer in terms of possession.

Both teams will have high ambitions coming into the match and the exciting thing will be that they both have to go for the win based on Chelsea’s position in the table as they’re only 2 points off United and 1 off Arsenal. This means we should see an attacking game of football played by two attacking sides and you’d be right to expect a heavy amount of goals, like we saw in the reverse fixture. This is backed up by the fact that Arsenal have scored at least 2 goals in all of their last 6 Premier League home matches as they’ve actually been superb at home recently, winning all of their last 8 when at the Emirates as they’re 3rd in the Premier League home table. However, United have actually been very good away recently as they’ve won all of their last 6 away games and these stats show that both teams are in good form and, possibly more importantly, that they’re both starting to find consistency in gaining points despite some scrappy performances. This game is extremely hard to call, however, I believe that Arsenal will capitalize on their home advantage to win 2-1.