GW 29: Tottenham vs. Arsenal

There are a number of tasty games this week, however, the best of these is undoubtedly the North London derby between Tottenham and Arsenal. This is quite possibly the most tense rivalry in the Premier League at the moment and with both teams heavily involved in the race for Champions League football we could see even more sparks than usual. Tottenham are currently in 3rd place while Arsenal are in 4th and only 4 points separate the sides after some poor recent performances from Spurs. Although Tottenham have been better overall over the last few seasons, Arsenal have rose to the occasion multiple times with the last 6 matches between the sides ending in only 3 Spurs wins. The last league match between them ended in an Arsenal win in a very entertaining match that finished 4-2. In the match, Arsenal were actually deservant of the win, as they doubled Tottenham’s shots with 22 while also managing more on target. Expected goals had the match down at 2.71 to 1.09 and although many accused Arsenal of being poor defensively in the match they were actually very solid. Tottenham, who are a strong creative side, only managed 6 shots from inside the box proving that this was one of Arsenal’s better performances this season especially when defending. Arsenal have been poor away from home though and the tide could potentially turn under different conditions.

Tottenham have had a good season up to this point and a few weeks ago they were even being touted as title challengers after a long stretch of good form. However, things have started going downhill recently with both of their last 2 matches ending in losses after they had actually managed 4 wins on the bounce prior to this. In both of these losses they had big problems in chance creation as they managed a total of only 1.52 expected goals over the course of them. Some of this could be the fault of a switch back to a 5 at the back formation in favour of the 4-1-2-1-2 that was working incredibly well for them a few weeks ago when they were in their prime. Because of this switch, they are only able to use one creative player in the midfield instead of two and Eriksen has had most of the burden of creating chances on his shoulders. They definitely struggled for chances in their last match against Chelsea as they only managed 0.63 expected goals. Although Chelsea were guilty of the same problems, they were luckier on the day with their first goal coming from a nutmeg on goalkeeper Hugo Lloris and the second being a terrible own goal from Kieran Trippier. Although they did play with the 4-1-2-1-2 in this match it was still different as Son and Lamela were dropping deeper than maybe Pochettino would have liked. One thing’s for certain though. Tottenham need to switch up their game plan slightly in order to find more attacking routes.

Jan Vertonghen should be important to Tottenham in this match against a pacey and threatening attack. He has sustained a few injury problems this season meaning he has only obtained 15 Premier League starts, however, when he has played he has been very commanding at the back. He is making 3.5 tackles and interceptions per match for a Spurs side who keep almost 57% possession on average. He is also heavily involved in build up play making an average of 67 passes per match and possession will be important in this match in order to keep Arsenal on the back foot. The emphasis will be on defence for Tottenham and Harry Winks is another player who has been shining in a defensive role. Following multiple Tottenham injuries he was moved deeper, into defensive midfield, and he has been playing brilliantly since, cementing is position there. Although his defensive contribution isn’t spectacular he is still making a solid 2.4 tackles and interceptions per 90, however, he isn’t heavily employed to make defensive actions. Even from a deeper role his main job is to distribute as he is making 78.5 passes per 90 and he has really stepped up to be the main distributor in the side along with Christian Eriksen. If Ozil plays for Arsenal in this match, Winks will be even more key as he’ll most likely have to do more defensive work in able to stop Ozil’s supply.

Arsenal, like always, have been inconsistent this season, however, they’ve managed to turn their form around in recent games in order to put a pretty good run together. This includes 5 wins from their last 6 matches with their only loss in this period coming against the dominant Manchester City while they beat teams like Chelsea and Bournemouth. Although they weren't always overly consistent in this period, the important thing is that they’ve finally been able to get their act together in able to win consistently, however, they’re going to need a bit more from this match. They might try to overload Harry Winks with their formational choice as they could play a 3-4-2-1 or 4-3-2-1 that they’ve favoured in some recent matches. This way the inside forwards could stay to either side of Winks while supporting the main striker, and he might find himself caught out of the action. Arsenal’s last match was a thumping 5-1 win over Bournemouth in which they played well but were a bit lucky to have won by such a convincing margin. They took 16 shots in the match which was only 3 better than Bournemouth’s 13 while they managed only 1 more shot on target (6 to 5). Expected goals also highlights this as the game was predicted at 2.20 to 0.90 which shows that, while Arsenal did deserve the win, the chances they created suggest that it was a tighter match than the scoreline tells us. Although Bournemouth have been a good team this season, Tottenham are of a completely different class and Arsenal will have to step up, particularly in defence.

Tottenham have a range of attacking talent available to them and Lucas Torreira, who has been superb this season, will have a lot of work to do in central midfield. He is making 4.1 tackles and interceptions per 90 at the moment as he has really been the main defensive presence for Arsenal this season. While Xhaka and Guendouzi are both more progressive midfielder, Torreira has had the burden of sitting deep and he’s been in charge of shielding Arsenal’s poor defence. Torreira will likely be directly up against Eriksen and/or Lamela while Son will also be dropping a bit deeper for Tottenham so his defensive contribution will need to be top notch yet again. On a more attacking note, Mesut Ozil should also be able to make a big contribution if he is played. In Arsenal’s last 9 matches, Ozil has only been started 2 times while only making 1 substitute appearance, and although this is slightly down to injury, it seems like he has largely fallen out of favour with Unai Emery. However, he has played a part in each of their last 2 matches as he started against Bournemouth and proved to be a crucial player to the squad as he helped them win emphatically. He grabbed a goal and an assist in the match as he made the joint most key passes on the field with 4. He could play in the aforementioned inside forward role as he has played as both a winger and an attacking midfielder in the past and this position is almost a merge of these other two. His creativity from this position should be important and if he’s able to get in behind the more advansive Eriksen then he could be able to cause serious problems.

Tottenham aren’t struggling too badly from injuries but a couple of their key players will miss this match. Both Dele Alli and Eric Dier are going to miss the game and their skill sets will be greatly missed. Part of Spurs’ struggles lately have come because of the absence of Alli, as his creative presence has allowed Eriksen to move about more freely and without him, Erisken is in more risk of being man marked. Recent news has come in though that both Vertonghen and Winks could potentially miss through minor injuries and if they were to stay out then Tottenham would be greatly damaged defensively. Arsenal are actually doing quite well in terms of injuries at this stage with only Holding, Bellerin and Welbeck missing the match. All of these players are important to the squad, but they’ve also all been missing for long periods of time, and by this stage they should be able to adjust and adapt to play without them. The biggest miss here is Bellerin as no one has been able to step up as a starting right back after he sustained a bad knee injury and the threat that he delivers down the right side is unrivalled in the Arsenal squad.

While Tottenham are seemingly starting to decline slightly, Arsenal are doing the opposite and after a good run of games, leading them into 4th place, they’ll be confident and ready for this challenge. With only 4 points between the sides, this looks to be one of the closest London Derbies to date and we could see fireworks with both teams desperately needing the points to achieve their separate dreams of Champions League football. Although Tottenham have been better when away over the entirety of the season, lately they’ve shown more form when at home as they’ve won all of their last 3 home matches while both of their last losses came when playing at opponent’s grounds. The fact that Arsenal are finally somewhat clear from injuries should also play a part and with Tottenham missing a couple key players we see another aspect of the game that Arsenal could capitalize on. With both teams slightly inconsistent at the moment the game becomes difficult to predict and that's why I think this one’s going to end up in a draw, 2-2.