GW 28: Chelsea vs. Tottenham

We return to the Premier League straight away with midweek games and we’ve got a great fixture coming up for us on Wednesday as Chelsea face Spurs in what should be an entertaining London Derby. Both teams are highly involved in the race for Champions League football and although Tottenham are 8 points off 5th place this lead could be easily lost within a number of days especially when they are playing teams of the caliber of Chelsea. Chelsea are one of two teams to have a game in hand over the rest of the league as they sit in 6th place, 3 points behind Arsenal in 4th and 10 points off this Spurs side. These teams have had an extremely tight rivalry over the past few seasons with 3 wins a piece over the last 6 matches between them. In these last 6 though, only 3 have come in the Premier League in which Spurs have come out on top winning 2 with Chelsea only winning 1. One of Tottenham’s wins came in the reverse fixture in the league in which they managed to win 3-1 at their own ground. In this match Tottenham really outclassed their opponents with expected goals shows as the metric had the game down as 3.35 to 0.96 in Spurs’ favour. Although Chelsea dominated possession in the game they were outshot 18 to 13 while Spurs also had 9 shots on target to Chelsea’s 2. You might expect Chelsea to improve on this performance when at home, however, their form has been poor and Tottenham have actually been better when away during this campaign.

Chelsea have had a season of mixed feelings up to this point but lately things have started to go down hill as their form has plummeted while many off field issues have started to pop up. While Sarri has accused his own players of not being motivated enough, Chelsea have also been handed a 2 window transfer ban and their are rumours that owner Roman Abramovich is looking to sell the club. This has come in the same period in which they have been thrashed 4-0 by Bournemouth and 6-0 by Manchester City while also being knocked out of the FA Cup and losing the finals of the League Cup. In such a terrible time at the club Sarri looks like he could be sacked relatively soon with some of his players disapproving of his authority and tactics, however, at the moment he’s still in charge and he should still be come Wednesday’s match. Chelsea’s last Premier League match was their terrible defeat to Manchester City in what was possibly the worst performance form a top 6 side in the Premier League era. Although there had to be some luck involved for such an extreme scoreline to occur, expected goals shows that the final result wasn’t too extravagant as the predicted result was 4.04 to 0.90. To concede upwards of 4 expected goals is incredibly rare and for a side who are fighting for Champions League football this is a terrible performance on both sides of the field. Signs from a few of their recent matches, including this one, show that Chelsea might not be ready to take on another top 6 opponent and the improvements will have to be humongous if they want points from this upcoming match.

Although none of the players have really kept their form during this down period, Hazard is still an incredibly dangerous player and he has maintained most of the quality he was showing at the beginning of the campaign. His individual ability is hugely apparent as all of his 3 main attacking stats (shots, dribbles and key passes) are exceeding 3 per 90 which also shows his versatility in attack. The main feature of his game is his dribbling though as he is making a superb 3.7 dribbles per 90 as he has practically carried his team at times with his ability to beat a man and find space. He will most likely be handed a freer role in the upcoming match, with his job being to carry the ball through the midfield which he might able to do quite well against the inexperienced and more forward thinking Harry Winks who has been playing in defensive midfield recently. Another player that has stayed very consistent throughout Chelsea’s season is Cesar Azpilicueta who has been highly underrated in this Chelsea side. He has been making a very impressive 3.8 tackles and interceptions per match which is actually 0.2 better than Manchester City’s Fernandinho, and against the incredibly in form Heung-Min Son his defensive contribution will need to be above par. Son is a player who often relies on faults from other players so that he can speed past them, however, Azpilicueta is characteristically very consistent and his concentration and defensive ability could prove enough to stop the Premier League’s most in form player.

Tottenham have been flying for quite some time now and have done really well to stay so close to the two league leaders. Spurs are currently only 6 points off Liverpool and when you consider how this deficit could be changed in a matter of games you see why many people are still backing them as title challengers. Their results in the Premier League had been fantastic over weeks gone by until their disappointing loss to Burnley as before this they had managed 4 consecutive wins, even without the presence of Harry Kane. Tottenham’s best chance in the match might come if they try to overload the centre of the park to expose the criticized Jorginho or try to find roots down the right where they might be able to catch out the offensively minded Marcos Alonso. This overload of the centre might come from using the 4-1-2-1-2 that has become favoured by Pochettino, so that Eriksen or maybe Lamela can provide pressure on Jorginho from the attacking midfield role. Pochettino might also choose to play Son on the right of the two strikers so that he can stay clear of the aforementioned Azpilicueta and target Chelsea’s weaker left hand side. This system wasn’t employed last time out with a back 5 being preferred and it cost them dearly as they didn’t gain any points against a Burnley side who are currently 14th. Tottenham dominated the game with 70% possession and also took 17 shots to Burnley’s 10 and although these stats make it look like Tottenham might have deserved more from the match, expected goals shows otherwise. The metric predicted a tight affair and a scoreline of 1.09 to 0.85 in favour of Burnley and this shows that Tottenham weren’t getting themselves into good scoring positions which they can’t be found guilty of in this upcoming match.

With the absence of Dele Alli through injury, Eriksen could prove to play a crucial part in Tottenham’s success in this match as his creativity will be needed to play in behind the strikers. He is making 2.7 key passes per game which is what’s seen among Europe’s elite and with players like Kane up front the main goal for Tottenham will be to get the ball to his feet in order for him to cause problems. Also, if he is played as the attacking midfielder in a 4-1-2-1-2 he might be employed to play in a similar role that Aaron Ramsey did against Chelsea in which he’ll have to stay tight to Jorginho and nullify his passing presence to disrupt Chelsea’s passing play. The aforementioned Heung-Min Son will also play a huge part in the match as his form has carried the club through a rough time in terms of injuries. In his last 4 Premier League matches he has 3 goals while he also grabbed one in Spurs’ Champions League match against Dortmund. His stats speak for themselves as he is taking 4.3 shots per game while making 3 dribbles which shows that he has been largely employed to make chances for himself and without much help in the absence of some key players. Like mentioned earlier, he could be played in a more unnatural role out to the right hand side as Spurs could look to exploit the lack of pace that Marcos Alonso has and with Son’s speed and dribbling abilities it makes sense to try to give him that sort of space.

Chelsea have a huge advantage when it comes to injuries as none of their main players have problems of any kind. The only players within the Chelsea first team who could miss the game are Cahill, Zappacosta and Drinkwater, however, all of these injuries are very minor and most likely won’t keep them out. Along with this, these players have played a combined 39 minutes of Premier League football and even if they were to miss out it wouldn’t change Sarri’s team selection in the slightest. Tottenham, on the other hand, will have some problems in selecting their strongest starting 11 as a few of their key players could be absent for this fixture. Although only 2 of their players are currently enduring injuries, these players are Dele Alli and Eric Dier who can both play crucial roles in Pochetinho’s system, particularly when the 4-1-2-1-2 is being implemented. Alli currently has a hamstring problem that should see him out until early March and with him out Tottenham lose a lot of their threat from the tip of their diamond midfield. Alli is a brilliant attacking player but has also become well known for his impressive defensive work and you feel that this output will be heavily missed as he would be the perfect player to man mark Jorginho out of the game. Dier is another big miss as he is the perfect player to play in such a tough match because he doesn’t mind sitting deep and covering gaps for more attack minded- players.

The teams come into this game in dramatically different periods of form as, while Chelsea are falling apart, Tottenham are chugging on and even with the disappointing result last time out they should be confident in their play. Although Chelsea are at home, where they’re undefeated in 15 of their last 16, the off the field matters seem to be getting to them heavily and with pressure on Sarri to improve their run of form they could falter yet again. The gap between the teams is only 10 points though and Chelsea have a game in hand over the rest of the league so they’ll want to press home that advantage and get what would be a crucial win in their battle to make it to the Champions League. Although Chelsea are at home, and have advantages in terms of injuries, I still think they’ll struggle against what seems to be a vastly superior Tottenham side in terms of form. I predict a 2-1 Tottenham win.