GW 27: Manchester United vs. Liverpool

In the upcoming set of fixtures we have a classic match as a rejuvenated Manchester United side take on Liverpool at Old Trafford. With both teams in superb form at the moment and with them fighting to achieve their separate goals this looks to be an exciting fixture with plenty of drama. While United’s form has skyrocketed in recent weeks, Liverpool have slumped in a form slightly, however, they are still level on points with City even with a game in hand. The last match between these teams ended in Liverpool completely outplaying United. Although the score was only 3-1 in Liverpool’s favour they never looked in doubt in the match with expected goals predicting the game at a comfortable score of 2.66 to 0.60 as Liverpool took an incredible 36 shots in the match while United only managed 6 and 2 on target. Liverpool also had 65% possession as United barely got on the ball and never looked like threatening the opposition's goal. However, you’d be right to expect a very different match here and even after United’s poor Champions League performance last week they should be highly improved side.

United have been brilliant under Solskjaer but some recent performances have raised eyebrows showing that he might not be the man for the permanent job as many have suggested. Of course he has done a great job with a side who were struggling before his arrival, however, their wins over Tottenham and Leicester were unconvincing while they drew with Burnley as well. This upcoming match will definitely be the hardest that they’ve had to face under Solskjaer’s reign and the pressure building on him could have an effect on the result of the match. You would expect United to play with an expansive style but we’ve seen Solskjaer use more defensively prominent systems when playing tough opposition in the past. United’s best chance might come from overloading the left side of the field as this will expose Matip as well as an out of position Milner or a half fit Alexander-Arnold. This could cause them to play Pogba to the left of the midfield three so that he can cause problems down Liverpool’s weakened right hand side. United’s last match was a convincing 3-0 win but when you look at the underlying numbers you see that they were very lucky to win by such a large margin. Fulham actually had more expected goals in the match with 2.18 while United only had 2.11 with the teams taking an equal number of shots. United did manage the game quite well though but they have to be prepared for a very different sort of challenge in the upcoming match and definitely a better defensive side.

Pogba will clearly be an important player for United in this match as he has really been a symbol of Solskjaer’s reign with his improvement being shocking. When playing under Solskjaer he is managing 4.3 shots per game while in his last 10 Premier League matches under Mourinho he was only taking 3 shots per game. This not only shows his general improvement but also the freedom that he has under Solskjaer as he is allowed to get forwards into areas to shoot and is also being allowed to shoot more frequently. You’d expect to either play as an attacking midfielder (like he has in almost all his games under Solskjaer) or to play as the advanced midfielder in a midfield three in which you would expect him to play of to the left. As mentioned earlier, this is where Liverpool are at their weakest and United will want to use their star man to expose this area of the field. Liverpool have a strong attacking lineup and David De Gea will undoubtedly need to pull off some big saves as he always seems to do. He is currently 3rd in the Premier League for saves, only betterd by Etheridge and Fabianski who are constantly under threat due to their poor defenses. He has a 72% save percentage which is very good and one of the best in the league so his output will need to be big again against an incredible side who create a lot of scoring opportunities.

Liverpool come into this game in some overall good form but with a lot of pressure on them due to the title fight that they are in. They also have a disadvantage as they have to play Bayern in the Champions League on Tuesday whereas United played last week against PSG. This extra week could really show in the match ahead as Liverpool might have to rest some key players after a difficult game midweek. Liverpool should have Alexander-Arnold back for this game, however, Gomez should still be out and you’d expect Klopp to play the more defensive-minded Fabinho on the right side so that they don’t get caught out. He might also play Wijnaldum or Henderson on the right and employ them to sit deep and limit Pogba. Liverpool’s last Premier League match was a convincing 3-0 win against Bournemouth in which you felt they were back at the top of their game after a couple disappointing draws against mid table opposition. The game always seemed to be in Liverpool’s hand as they took 20 shots to Bournemouth's 12 while managing a further 9 on target to Bournemouth’s 2. They also had 66% possession as they had scored all of their goals by the 48th minute and were able to sit back for most of the game. Although they face a much harder test here, you’d expect United to be penned back in a similar fashion (even with most people thinking that United are much more expansive under Solskjaer) as they were against PSG and Tottenham.

Wijnaldum, who was mentioned earlier, had a great game last time out and has  had a really underrated season in general as he has been a crucial part in Liverpool’s title challenge up to this point. He has started 21 of their 26 Premier League matches which is more than any other Liverpool centre-mid and he is making 55 passes per match as he is largely in charge of distributing from deep. His extreme versatility has shone through this season as he plays as an attacking midfielder for the Netherlands while he has played as both a advansive central midfielder in a 3 and as a deep lying player in a 2 for Liverpool. This will be useful for Klopp as it gives him tactical versatility as he might choose to play him in a 2 so that Shaqiri can make the starting line up and provide a creative presence. Fabinho is another important player and another player who has been in superb form lately. He’ll likely play in defensive midfield and, like mentioned earlier, he could be employed really deep so that the full-backs can fly forwards while he provides defensive cover. He is making a monstrous 3.8 tackles and interceptions per 90 which is actually 0.2 more than Fernandinho and this defensive output will be important up against the outstanding Paul Pogba. He is also making 72 passes and 0.9 key passes per 90 and after he got an assist in the reverse fixture his creative side might be something United need to watch out for as well.

Manchester United have some big injury problems coming into this match with both Martial and Lingard sustaining bad injuries in the match against PSG. While both of these players are set to be out, Valencia, Darmian and Rojo are also most likely going to miss as United have problems in both attack and defence. Of course the main issues are with Martial and Lingard as they have both played crucial roles in Solskjaer’s vision of free flowing attacking football and Manchester United will miss Martial’s drive and Lingard’s ability to roam and draw defensive players. Without these players available they look to be stuck with Sanchez and Mata who are both good players in their own rights but they don’t interchange positions as well and their link up play isn’t quite up to par. They could also use Rashford on the wing but this would mean Lukaku playing up front and he’s been poor in recent matches. Liverpool are also suffering from some major injury issues and the aforementioned Joe Gomez’s absence should prove to be a big problem. Lovren and Shaqiri could also miss the match, however, they both look likely to return before the game as theri injuries aren’t too serious. With Gomez missing, Liverpool could have some problems as you’d think United would target Liverpool’s right hand side as Manchester City did, in order to make the most of what will be a weaker defensive link.

Both teams come into the match in very good form although Liverpool come into the match as favourites due to their overall form of the season and their position in the table. Manchester United do have home advantage though, where they are earning 0.3 more points per game and where they have won 4 of their last 5 in the Premier League. This home form is part of some overall form that has seen them win 8 of their last 9 in the Premier League with their only slip up coming against Burnley in a 2-2 draw. Liverpool’s form has been even more superb though as they are undefeated in 26 of their last 27 and these 2 teams are arguably the most in form in the Premier League at the moment. If Manchester United had a fully fit side coming into this match they might be backed to win the match, however, with a few key attacking players out they might lose their flowing attacking play and that’s why I’m predicting a 2-1 away win for Liverpool.