GW 27: Bournemouth vs. Wolves

This weekend, we have an intense mid table clash coming up for us as Wolves travel to the Vitality to face Bournemouth on Saturday. Wolves have excelled in recent matches which has seen them move up to 7th while Bournemouth have done the opposite slipping outside the top 10 and into 11th. Still though, only 6 points separate the sides meaning this margin could be reduced to 3 or expanded to 9 by the end of the match. The teams, however, seem less well matched when you look at expected points with Wolves actually in 5th on 43 while Bournemouth have a mere 34. These teams have only met 3 times in their histories with only one of these, the reverse fixture earlier this season, coming in the Premier League while the other two came in the 2014/15 Championship season. In these matches, Bournemouth have won 2 with Wolves winning only 1, however, Wolves’ one win came in the reverse fixture this season when they were at home. In this match, Wolves came out on top 2-0 as they got into good positions despite taking 3 loss shots than Bournemouth. The result does make sense though when you consider that 60% of Wolves’ shots came from inside the box compared to 53% for Bournemouth. Of course though, Wolves were at home in this match and you would expect the dynamics of the game to change drastically when played at a different ground.

Bournemouth started off the season in excellent style but they’ve failed to impress in recent matches as they’ve felt their form flailing slightly. They have lost their last 2 matches in an overall run that has seen them lose 4 of their last 7, drawing  1 and only winning 2. Bournemouth will want to cut down the wide space for Wolves in this match as many of Wolves’ attacks come from attacking down the flanks via their two wing-backs. Bournemouth could do this by potentially using a 5 (or 3) at the back formation in order to match Wolves’ formation and block their favoured attacking routes or by playing with more defensively minded wide players in their more common 4-4-2. They should also play with a holding midfield player who can stay deep on Moutinho when defending and also sit between the 2 centre-backs when attacking so that Wolves can’t counter attack as effectively. Bournemouth’s last game was a disappointing, but expected, 3-0 loss to Liverpool as they were simply outclassed by a much better side. Expected goals had the match at 2.53 to 0.39 in Liverpool’s favour which really shows the gulf between the two sides while also showing how limited Bournemouth were as their best chance in the match had an expected goals value of 0.07. Liverpool took 20 shots in the match while Bournemouth only managed 12 while only 2 of Bournemouth’s shots were on target. Of course this game won’t be quite as difficult but they’ll have to improve massively, especially in chance creation as Wolves are another solid defensive side.

King has had another fantastic season in the Prem this year and he’ll be the main man in attack while up against a strong defensive unit. In 22 starts he has managed 8 goals which isn’t brilliant but it also shows that he is having to play in awkward position and sometimes deeper due to the prominence of Wilson in the starting lineup. His all round attacking numbers are quite good and they show that he is very versatile and that he has a number of strengths. He is only taking 2 shots per game but he makes up for this with his other attacking qualities as he is making 1 key pass per game as well as completing 2 dribbles. This ability to play across the front line will be very useful for Howe, who might want to withdraw him or play him in a natural striking role. Lerma will be another important Bournemouth player and could play in that deep midfield role that was mentioned earlier. Although he hasn’t been playing as well as he was when he was in La Liga last year, he is having an underrated season as he has been an ever present player in the Bournemouth midfield. Although he can have an attacking impact, his defensive side could be important as, like has been the case usually, he’ll probably be played as a deep lying player and will look to cut off counter attacking opportunities. He is making 3.4 tackles per game in the league and he should be an important transition piece for the Cherries.

Wolves have been in incredible form lately and they’re unbeaten in their last 4 games, winning 3 of these. Not only have they been gaining an impressive amount of points in this period, but they’re also playing good football with Nuno’s switch to a 3-4-1-2 seeming to be effective. Bournemouth have played with a 4-4-2 15 out of 26 times this season, and although they might switch tactics for this game, it looks likely that they’ll stick with their favoured formation. When you look at this formation you don’t see many gaps, however, the one thing that Wolves could do is play Moutinho in a free role. This way he can drag out either a Bournemouth centre-back or centre-mid leaving space for a Wolves striker or centre-mid to receive the ball. You would expect one of the strikers to drop deep into a freer role as well and all of this potential fluidity that we’ve seen in previous matches could have a promising effect. Although Wolves have been on a good run, their last match was quite disappointing as a 1-1 draw with Newcastle wasn’t what they would have hoped for coming into the match. Wolves completely dominated in the match as they had 60% possession and took 22 shots to Newcastle’s 9. Expect goals illustrates this quite well as it shows Wolves winning 2.31 to 0.44 which is a huge margin considering the final result. Part of this is Wolves’ fault though as they didn’t manage to finish the chances they did create and they won’t want to endure the same problem this time round.

Bournemouth have become known for their quick breaks and deadly finishing so the way Wolves defend becomes a real aspect when looking into the match. One defensive player who has impressed in recent matches is Leander Dendoncker who has slowly been embedded into the Wolves starting lineup. The 23 year old Anderlecht loanee has made in impressive contribution lately even with only 6 PL starts to his name. In this time he has been making 3.3 tackles and interceptions per game while also showing his attacking and transitional qualities as he is passing 32 times per match and taking 1.1 shots as well. However, the emphasis will be on his defensive performance as he’ll be crucial if King is employed to drop deep as they’ll be largely one on one against each other. On the more attacking side of things, the aforementioned Joao Moutinho should be incredibly crucial to Wolves’ chances in the match. His presence will be particularly felt if Nuno continues to go with the 3-4-1-2 as he has the ability to slip in between the lines of midfield and defence in order to collect the ball and distribute. He is making 1.9 key passes per game which is quite high and he’ll be looking for balls through to Jiminez and Jota at all times, especially when he does find the gap between the lines.

Bournemouth have a number of very worrying injury problems that have been affecting some of their star players over the last few weeks. Wilson and Brooks are the main concerns but Francis, Lewis Cook and Stanislas also have problems. Wilson has been out for the last 3 weeks now and his absence has clearly affected Bournemouth’s form as they haven’t scored in their last 2 and have been overall poor on offence. Brooks as well, has been an incredible creative player and you feel that Bournemouth will greatly miss the 1.7 shots and 1 key pass he is making per game. Wolves aren’t facing too many injury problems currently with only Doherty and Jota possibly missing out. Although both of these players have been absolutely instrumental to their campaigns so far, they are only suffering from minor problems and they seem likely to return before game time. If either of these players were to miss out though Wolves would lose a lot of their attacking threat as both of these players are often highly involved in offensive scenarios with 14 goal contributions between them.

Although Wolves come into the match in much better form, Bournemouth are at home in the match which could prove to play an important role in the match. Bournemouth have been far better when at home this season as they have gained 15 more points when at home even when playing the same amount of games. To put this in perspective, they are are gaining 1.15 more points per match when at home as they are gaining 1.84 when home and a meager 0.69 when away. Comparatively, Wolves have also been slightly better when at home and they’ll need to prepare for a tough task against a team who play really well when in front of their own supporters. We could also be in for a more attacking fixture as there have been at least 3 goals in 5 of of Wolves’ last 6 away games while Bournemouth have scored 2 or more in their last 4 home matches. Overall, I think that Wolves’ form will prevail in the match and that they’ll win 2-1.