GW 27: Arsenal vs. Southampton

This week’s final fixture (along with Manchester United vs. Liverpool) comes from the Emirates as Arsenal are facing Southampton. Although, when you look at the league table, this doesn’t seem like a very even fixture with Arsenal in 5th and Southampton in the relegation battle in 18th, this could prove to be a tighter match than it looks as Southampton have had some promising moments under Hasenhuttl. Both teams’ form have been very unstable lately with no real coherency from one performance to the next which is highlighted by Southampton beating Everton and Leicester and then just weeks late drawing with Burnley and losing to Cardiff. This inconsistency of the sides involved makes it very hard to predict what will happen in this match and an upset could occur like in the last time these sides met. This last match was a dramatic 3-2 Southampton win in which they capitalized on some Arsenal errors to come out as unexpected victors. Arsenal were actually quite unlucky to lose this match which expected goals shows, as the metric predicted a 1.86 to 1.21 win in Arsenal’s favour. This not only shows that Southampton were lucky to score their goals in the match but also that Arsenal were slightly guilty of missing a few easy chances. Aubameyang was expected to score 1.46 goals whereas he didn’t even get on the score sheet and you could say that he was slightly at fault for having Arsenal walk out of the match without any points.

Arsenal come into this game in 5th place and only 1 point off the top 4 which is a position you’d think they’d be quite happy with considering 4th place United play Liverpool this weekend. However, their form has been shaky in recent games with 2 losses and 4 wins from their last 6. In this period their losses came against Manchester City and West Ham while they were able get an impressive 2-0 victory over Chelsea which shows that maybe their form isn’t as bad as it looks. One big problem when you look at this run though is that they’ve only managed 1 clean sheet over these games and have conceded 7 from 6 showing that, defensively, things need to be improved which has been a constant narrative for their entire season. Southampton have used a range of formations this season so it’s hard for Arsenal to try to counter them, however, under Hasenhuttl in recent matches they’ve seemed to opt for a 3-5-2 more often than not.  When you look at this you feel that Arsenal could try to overload the wide areas hoping to catch out the two wing-backs when they bomb forwards. To do this Arsenal might line up with a 3-4-3 so that they are playing with 4 natural wide players in order to expose Southampton on the flanks. Arsenal played poorly in their last match, however, they still came out on top 2-1 winners against Huddersfield but you feel they would’ve been disappointed in the performance. They only managed 1.47 expected goals in the match which is incredibly poor considering how bad Huddersfield have been this season defensively, and when you think of Arsenal’s attack there is much more potential in that line up than what was on show. Although Southampton don’t look much better than Huddersfield on paper, they should provide a tougher task and Arsenal will have to massively step up their game in both defence and attack.

Sead Kolasinac should be an integral part of the Arsenal side for this match especially if they do go with the aforementioned 3-4-3 formation. Kolasinac will be up against the in form Valery for Southampton, who has been adequate both in defence and attack, and Kolasinac’s all round ability from wingback could come into play here. Although Kolasinac is not particularly well known for his defensive abilities he is quite underrated in this area of his play as he is actually managing 2.8 tackles and interceptions per match which is actually only 0.4 worse than Chelsea’s Marcos Alonso. However, the more praised and noticed part of his game is attacking prowess as he already has 4 assists (which is only 2 less than Ramsey who has the most assists for Arsenal) from 15 Premier League appearances. He is making a very impressive 1.6 key passes per match and his advansive wing play is one of the reasons that poachers like Aubameyang are thriving in this current Arsenal set up. Another underrated asset from the Arsenal side who could prove to be important is the young Matteo Guendouzi. He has had a very good breakout season under Emery and his well roundedness in midfield could prove to be essential when up against James Ward-Prowse who has starred recently. Guendouzi is instrumental in Arsenal's build up play as he is making 63 passes per 90 while also completing 0.8 key passes. You’d expect Southampton to sit relatively deep in this match and Guendouzi’s ability to split the line with a pass could come in handy.

Southampton have had a difficult season up to this point but they’ve rebounded slightly under Hasenhuttl and they’ve been playing more promising football. Before their loss last week they had actually gone on an unbeaten run of 5 games in a row. In this period they won 2 (against Everton and Crystal Palace) and drew 3 as this was a really encouraging period for the club and quite possibly their best of the season. After looking at this run of form you’d think they’d be very disappointed with being in 18th place at the moment, however, they are only 4 points off 13th place in what has become a very tight relegation battle, at least for that last place in the relegation zone. Although Southampton’s first instinct in this game might be to sit back against a competent attacking unit, they should try to play an open and expansive game in order to capitalize on Arsenal’s weaknesses in defence and hope for a high scoring game like  what they achieved last time out. In their last match though, they weren’t able to play on the front foot as much as they would have liked and although they dominated in most aspects of the match they lost 2-1 to a struggling Cardiff side. They did play with an overall attacking style as Cardiff were penned back for most of the game but their football didn’t prevail as Cardiff capitalized on 2 of their 6 shots to win the match. Expected goals had this one thoroughly in Southampton’s favour at 1.64 to 0.40 which really shows that they were going for the win in this match and also that they were unlucky not to get it. Southampton fans will definitely hope that this performance doesn’t dissuade Hasenhuttl from keeping is attacking approach.

Ward-Prowse has had quite a resurgence under Hasenhuttl and based on some of his recent performances he is definitely one to watch out for in this match. In his 7 starts under Hasenhuttl, he has averaged 2.1 key passes per match while averaging 1.3 shots as well which is slightly better than what he was managing under Hughes. He has also managed all of his 3 goals under Hasenhuttl as he wasn’t played very often under Hughes and when he was he wasn’t encouraged to get forwards as heavily as he is now. Arsenal have a couple of very strong central midfield players in Torreira and Guendouzi, so the contribution made by the rising Ward-Prowse could prove to be a difference maker. Nathan Redmond has been another good player for Southampton recently and with his drive and quick feet he does seem to be one of the few Southampton players who is always making something happen and causing problems for the opposition. He can play on the right or left of midfield but he has been more prominently used as an attacking midfielder this season with his role being to advance the ball through his dribbling. He is making an incredible 2.5 dribbles per game which shows how much he is required to run at the opposition while he is also taking 1.5 shots and making 1.3 key passes as he is quite an all rounded attacking player. Arsenal have a very slow backline and the pace that Redmond brings to the Southampton team is priceless and his impact could be big in this match.

Arsenal have a few bad injury problems but when compared to previous weeks they’re doing much better. Koscielny, Holding, Bellerin, Maitland-Niles and Welbeck all have complications at the moment with only Koscielny and Maitland-Niles potentially returning for the match. With all of these players out, Arsenal’s backline becomes significantly weakened as both Koscielny and Holding have been starting centre-backs when fit while Bellerin and Maitland-Niles have both been regulars on the right of a back 5. The biggest problem here is on the right side as Emery might be forced to use a more attack minded player and leave them exposed to the runs of Bertrand or use Lichtsteiner who hasn’t impressed so far. Southampton arguably have even worse problems in terms of injuries not necessarily in numbers but because of who the players are. Southampton will only be missing Lemina and Ings for this fixture, however, these are two of their most crucial players and they were really carrying the squad before they got injured. Hasenhuttl has managed to do without them recently but Ings is still Southampton’s top scorer by 4 goals and Lemina was playing very impressively at the base of midfield so you’d expect them to be greatly missed against high quality opposition.

As mentioned earlier, Arsenal come into this match as strong favourites, however, Southampton’s upturn under Hasenhuttl has gone under the radar slightly and although they suffered a disappointing defeat last time out they can’t be overlooked like they were in their last match against the Gunners. Arsenal are at home though where they’ve been quite fantastic as they are 3rd in the home table as they’re only bettered by Manchester City and Liverpool. They’ve won their last 6 home games while scoring 2 or more in their last 4 as they’ve really turned the Emirates into a fortress in recent matches which has kept them in the running for Champions League football. This consistency is not something that we’ve become accustomed to seeing from Arsenal recently and when Southampton look at this they’ll definitely be worried for what lies ahead. Because of this recent home solidity, I’m going to back Arsenal to win this one and I’m predicting 2-1 in their favour.