GW 26: Manchester City vs. Chelsea

There’s a big match this weekend that could be a massive title decider as Chelsea travel to the Etihad to face Manchester City. Due to the quality of these sides, this was always going to be a tense and important match but with City level on points with Liverpool and with Chelsea only 2 points ahead of 5th, the game is no doubt going to be hyped up even more due to it’s possible value to the sides involved. Both teams achieved wins in their last matches, however, while City are in top form, Chelsea are currently enduring a rough spell at the club with manager Maurizio Sarri questioning some of his players’ commitment to the team. The reverse fixture between them was a thrilling match in which Chelsea ran out 2-0 winners after a rigid performance from them. This was one of Sarri’s best tactical games with Chelsea as he employed a deep block very well as Chelsea finished their chances brilliantly in order for them to keep their defensive structure intact. The game had a combined expected goals of 1.27 showing that both teams played very well in defence and you would expect Chelsea to take a defensive approach yet again, especially while away from home.

City are enduring another fantastic season and after a good while in 2nd place they’ve finally made it back up to 1st as Liverpool drew last week while they won their midweek game against Everton. This makes this fixture even more important for them as they’ve played a game more than Liverpool so they need to keep up their form to make sure their title rivals can’t catch them. City’s home form has been immaculate up to this point as they’ve won 13 of their last 14 home Premier League matches scoring 2 or more goals in every one of these, showing just how superb they are when at the Etihad with their only blip in this period coming in a 3-2 loss to Palace. Their last match was a solid away win against Everton, who are struggling at the moment, as they ran out 2-0 victors with goals at the ends of both halves. Expected goals shows that City thoroughly deserved the win as the metric predicted a 2.61 to 0.11 scoreline showing that Everton barely had a chance in the match and that City marshalled their attackers well. Everton only had 4 shots in the match and with 3 of these coming from outside the box you can see that Manchester City were able to hold a very firm defensive line throughout the match as they switched from a 4-1-4-1 to a 3-2-4-1 late on in the 1st half. You’d expect them to go with the 3-2-4-1 again in this match as it allows Fernandinho to push further forwards so that he can possibly limit Jorginho, and also will make the centre of the field more compact so that Hazard will have trouble roaming and might be confined to the wide areas.

Laporte has been brilliant over City’s past few matches and he seems to have found his best position playing on the left side of a back three. With him playing in a back three he his often allowed to move further forwards while Fernandinho covers for him meaning his extreme passing ability is becoming more effective in causing the opposition problems. He is making 85 passes per game with a 92.1% pass accuracy and he will definitely be involved in City’s possession play and could add to the assist he got a couple game weeks ago against Arsenal. He is also making 2.9 tackles and interceptions per game and his defensive contribution will be important against some top attackers. Fernandinho will be another key component for City and as mentioned earlier he could be employed as the facilitator for Manchester City while also possibly staying tight to Chelsea playmaker Jorginho. His 3.6 tackles and interceptions per game are monstrous considering how much possession City tend to have while he is also managing 0.8 key passes and 1.1 shots per match. Him and his midfield partner will have a lot of work to do against a midfield lineup that includes the likes of Kante, Kovacic and Jorginho and his all round ability will be needed in order to counteract the diverse strengths of the aforementioned players.

Chelsea come into this game while in a bit of a rough spell, no only on the pitch, but also with a few off field matters to deal with as Sarri is not overly convinced with some of his stars. He has come out publicly to criticize some of his players saying that as a group they are “very difficult to motivate”. This has come during a period in which they have lost 2 of their last 3 matches while losing their last 2 away games as well as you can see why Sarri might be upset with his players as one of these matches was a thumping 4-0 defeat to Bournemouth. Chelsea are 4th in the league at the moment, however they’re 12 points off 1st and 7 points off 3rd and with United only 2 points behind them they could drop out of the Champions League spots after this gameweek especially with the opposition they have to face. Even after these terrible performances though, they achieved a great win last week as Sarri’s words might have worked in spurring his side on. They beat Huddersfield 5-0 in what may have been one of their top performances of the season with new signing Higuain grabbing a double while Hazard did the same. Huddersfield are currently the bottom side though and you would expect a huge change in mentality as they come into this game.

Although there are many stand out players in the Chelsea squad, they will definitely struggle to create chances and therefore Higuain will be important as his finishing ability could provide them with the slight edge that could turn out to be the difference in the match. After blanking in his first couple of games in a Chelsea shirt, he played extremely well last time out taking 6 shots, which was the most in the match, and of course scoring a double. In Serie A with Milan, he was taking an incredible 3.7 shots per game before his move as he scored 6 in 15 league appearances for the club. This ability to get shots away will be incredibly necessary against City as they are only conceding 6.5 shots per game in the league due to their defensive stability. N’Golo Kante is another crucial Chelsea player and for Chelsea to get anything out of the match you feel his contribution will have to be felt. Although he is playing in a more advanced role this season he’ll have to do a lot of defending as Chelsea will most likely be penned back, and the 3.2 tackles and interceptions per game that he is making shows that he should be able to contribute on the defensive end as he’s done in the past. When you look at the average positions of the two teams it looks highly probable that Kante will be matched up against David Silva, who is a fantastic creative player, and Kante could definitely be employed to man mark him and take him out of the game.

Manchester City are still very low on injury problems as they’ve been for most of the season with only Bravo, Kompany and Mendy missing the match. These players are all suffering from relatively long term injuries and every one for them has been out for the past few matches at least. Kompany and Bravo aren’t overly important to the first team, however, Mendy’s threat will be missed against a side who will be playing deep and who will be tough to break down. Chelsea are extremely lucky in terms of injuries right now and only Cahill and Hudson-Odoi have small problems that could force them out. These players have only played a combined 95 Premier League minutes this season and their absences really shouldn't effect Chelsea’s performance in any way. Against such an outstanding side, this slight advantage of having a fully fresh team, especially considering City played a midweek game as well, might just be enough to give them the edge.

Coming into this game you feel both teams will be full of confidence as Chelsea will be hoping to do the double against their opposition while City will be looking to build on some impressive form in order to stay top of the league. City are completely dominant when at home though and their incredible home form which has seen them win 13 of their last 14 home matches could definitely play a big part in the match. Although Chelsea are usually a very possession based side, City seem to have the ability of scaring teams, which often caused them to sit deeper and I think this, along with City’s outstanding home form, will be enough for them to get the win. I’m predicting a 2-1 City win and for them to stay top for now.