GW 26: Everton vs. Manchester City

Everton against Manchester City is the only midweek fixture this week, as now that the FA cup is starting to take shape the Premier League fixtures are having to be manipulated. This will be a tough fixture for the teams involved as they have had to play a lot of games in a row up to this point and Manchester City’s depth might be a key component in determining the result of the match. Manchester City are in decent form at the moment while Everton have really started slipping losing 4 of their last 6 matches which has meant they are slowly declining and could potentially finish outside the top 10. In recent years, Manchester City have been the better side when it comes to this fixture, however, it’s been closer than you might think considering how much City have achieved over the last few seasons. In the last 6 matches between them, City have won 3 and Everton have won 1 with 5 of these matches coming in the Premier League. However, City have won their last 2 against Everton, including the reverse fixture earlier this season which finished 3-1. Now though, with Everton at home, they might expect to get more from the match at hand.

Everton have hit a really bad patch of form and questions are starting to be asked over Marco Silva’s tactics after some really poor performances. This is following 4 losses from their last 6 matches and while their home form has been solid in previous seasons, this has not been the case this season as they have lost 3 of their last 4 home games while only winning 1 of their last 6. In the match at hand, Everton’s best chance might come if they play Calvert-Lewin up front and Richarlison and Lookman around him. This will allow Everton to play high balls into Calvert-Lewin in order to disrupt Manchester City’s possession play while Richarlison and Lookman can provide creativity down the wings. However, Silva has been quite reluctant in playing Lookman this season and he might opt for someone like Walcott instead who might not add the same dynamism as Lookman. Dynamism was exactly what Everton needed in their last match, and exactly what they didn’t have as they lost 3-1 to Wolves. They played disastrously in the match as they barely showed any threat throughout the entirety of the 90 minutes. Everton took 13 shots in the match, however, these only amounted to a meager total of 1.33 expected goals as many of their shots came from poor areas of the pitch. Although they dominated the possession in the match they were easily caught out on the break and with such a bad performance just behind them, the results of this upcoming match could be frightening.

Michael Keane will be absolutely crucial in the match ahead, not only for his defensive abilities but also due to his aerial threat off set pieces. He has been Everton’s stand out defender this season making 2.6 tackles and interceptions a match and a quite outstanding 5.5 clearances as well showing that he really gets involved on the defensive end. He’ll most likely be directly up against the in form striker Sergio Aguero, who scored a hattrick in his last match, and his defensive output will be needed if Everton hope to get anything from the match. He could also provide a surprise goal threat, as Maguire did against Liverpool last week, as he is taking over a shot per game and is often getting on to set pieces which will be important in a game where his side won’t create too many chances. Idrissa Gueye will be another important defensive player for Everton as his work rate and all round ability is unrivalled in the Everton squad as he will be needed to stop the attacking presence of players like De Bruyne and David Silva. Gueye’s defensive stats are outstanding as he is making 6.6 tackles and interceptions per game showing that he is an absolute boss in the middle of the park. If David Silva plays, he’ll most likely play in a more advanced role than the other two midfielders and you would expect Gueye to sit tight on him and therefore attempt to stop the centrepiece of most of City’s creative plays.

Manchester City are looking strong at the moment and as Liverpool tied the other day, Manchester City could go top of the table if they win this match, however, that will mean Liverpool still have a match in hand. Still though, this pressure that they are putting on the league leaders is crucial and it could see Liverpool slip up in coming weeks. City have now won 5 of their last 6 Premier League matches with the only blip in this period coming against Newcastle when they lost 2-1. These last 6 games do include wins against Liverpool and Arsenal showing that City do play well against the bigger sides as they are often able to limit their possession play and force them to play on the back foot which many of these elite teams are not used to. Their last match was their win over Arsenal as they largely dominated the match to win 3-1 through a Sergio Aguero hat trick. Manchester City thoroughly deserved the win as they came out on top in terms of expected goals 2.91 to 0.70 while outshooting Arsenal by 15 and with 10 more on target. Manchester City need to keep their momentum going now in order to get a win in this match.

Sane could prove to be a useful weapon in this match considering he was one of their few start players who were rested in the Arsenal match. His pace will be extremely troubling for the aging Seamus Coleman especially as he should be the perfectly fit and ready for the match. He is contributing as both a goalscorer, with 8 goals, and as a supreme creator with 9 assists as his all round attacking stats highlight how much of a handful he has been for defenders. He is taking 2 shots and making 2 key passes per 90 while making an incredible 3.8 successful dribbles as well. These dribble stats will be worrying for Coleman who might be dragged out of position by some of Sane’s lucrative runs. Next we look to the other wing for City as Raheem Sterling will be another big threat as he always seems to be. With Baines injured and Digne a very attacking left-back, you’d expect Sterling to find a lot of space in behind throughout the match as his dribbling numbers are also brilliant with him making 2.9 dribbles per 90. However, what might be even more important in this match is his passing ability and his knack for playing through the lines as Everton usually set up with an extremely compact defence against the bigger teams which was showcased in their 0-0 draw against Chelsea earlier this year. He is making 2.4 key passes per 90 and considering most of these are from advanced areas he could be the main attacking outlet for City.

Everton have a few bad defensive injuries but overall they aren’t struggling too badly with only Mina and Jagielka missing for sure. Baines and Gueye could also be missing for the match, however, they both look relatively likely to return to the squad before the game takes place. Mina’s injury is a big blow to the side as he was making an impressive defensive contribution before his injury a few weeks ago, and he’ll most likely be replaced by Zouma who is better on the ball not as strong in the tackle and doesn’t provide as much of an aerial threat. You’d think that Everton won’t be on the ball too much in the game so Yerry Mina’s other abilities will be greatly missed. Manchester City are also very low on injury problems with only Bravo, Kompany and Mendy possibly missing the match. Bravo and Kompany are very much bit part players who would most likely not have been involved anyways so their absences don’t provide many problems, however, City might miss Mendy’s drive and attacking ability down the left hand side, especially against a team who will probably be playing with a deep block.

Manchester City come into this game as massive favourites due to their recent form and the overall quality of their team, however, Everton have a very talented roster and with them being at home we could see them spring a surprise in this match as they have done in seasons prior. In this game, you would be right to expect a very rigid Everton side as they’ll want to sit back and try to score on the break, which might not work for them as City are one of the best sides in the world at breaking down deep-lying defensive units. Everton will also be limited from using a three at the back formation, as we’ve seen them do in other tough matches, due to their amount of defensive injuries. Even though there have been 3 or more goals in Everton’s last 3 home matches against City, I believe this trend will be disrupted and that City will win 2-0.