GW 25: Manchester City vs. Arsenal

After a round of midweek fixtures the Premier League is right back with us this weekend and Manchester City vs. Arsenal looks to be a very interesting game. Both of these teams are considered to be in the elite group of the top 6 as they are well above the standard of any teams outside the Europa League spots which is shown by the 10 point gap between 6th and 7th place. The teams involved have both endured some decent form recently, however, City lost their last game while Arsenal won, so Arsenal might be slightly more confident coming into the match. Manchester City have dominated this fixture in recent years though as they’ve won 4 of the last 6 meetings between them while Arsenal have only won 1. This includes the reverse fixture this season where Manchester City were able to win quite comfortably, 2-0. Manchester City overpowered Arsenal with their passing game going up after just 13 minutes and almost doubling Arsenal’s shots while almost tripling their shots on target. However, this game was during the first match week of the season and a lot has changed up to this point.

Although Manchester City have been playing great football again this season, their performances have been overshadowed by the incredible Liverpool team who are now 5 points ahead of them. City have only dropped 16 points from the first 24 matches while at home they’ve been even better, gaining 33 from a possible 36 points which will be worrying for Arsenal. It looked as if Manchester City had recovered from a slight dip in form a few weeks ago as they had won 4 on the bounce including a win over Liverpool, however, they looked poor again last week losing 2-1 to strugglers Newcastle. In the game, although they came out on top in terms of expected goals (1.34 to 0.94), this was a very narrow margin by their standards and quite frankly not good enough if they want to be competing with the likes of Liverpool and Tottenham in the title race. The thing that has separated Manchester City from Liverpool this season have been their performances against sides lower in the table as they have dropped 11 points while playing teams outside the top 6 whereas Liverpool have only dropped 2. Luckily for City through, they seem to bring their A game against top opposition as they were able to do earlier in the season against Arsenal.

City have a plethora of players who could perform well in the match and who have been performing well all season, but for this particular match Fernandinho’s drive and intelligence in the centre of the park will be crucial. He is currently making an outstanding 3.6 tackles and interceptions a match for a team who average 64.1% possession and you would expect him to sit deep on either Ramsey or Ozil to nullify their creative presence. He is a large part of Manchester City’s extreme possession based play as he is making 77 passes a game with an 87% pass accuracy. In this match, possession will be very important for City as Arsenal are a team who struggle against attacking numbers and are weak at stopping build up play. With Arsenal’s free flowing attacking play, the defensive end needs to be top notch for City in this match and Laporte could provide the extra defensive edge. As a centre-back, he is second to maybe only Van Dijk in the Premier League, as his passing ability and composure on the ball along with his ability to time his tackles to perfection have really been keeping City going this season. He is making 2.9 tackles and interceptions a match which again, is quite good for a team who keep so much of the ball, while he is also making 84 passes per game with an astonishing 93% pass accuracy. This passing accuracy will be very important in transitioning from defence to attack while, like Fernandinho, he’ll be important in helping Manchester City to keep possession in order to expose Arsenal’s defensive frailties.

Arsenal have had a rocky season up to this point but they have somehow managed to find themselves in a Champions League spot after poor performances from Manchester United and Chelsea last week. After Arsenal's disappointing loss a few weeks ago to West Ham, they’ve bounced back very well managing 2 consecutive victories against Chelsea and Cardiff. Although the win against Cardiff isn’t anything to brag about, their win over Chelsea was superb and Emery’s tactical management of the game helped them to get 3 points from the match. One interesting point to take from the Chelsea match was Emery’s use of Ramsey. In the game, Ramsey was played in the  number 10 role and was employed to man mark Chelsea’s main man Jorginho out of the game, which meant Chelsea weren't able to progress the ball through him. You’d think Emery might use similar tactics in order to restrict Fernandinho who was mentioned earlier as being a very important player for City. Their last match was, as previously mentioned, against Cardiff who have been struggling this season as many thought they would. The match was really quite simple for Arsenal which expected goals shows as it predicted the match at 2.67 to 0.56 in Arsenal’s favour as they were up by 2 when Mendez-Laing scored in the 92nd minute. They’ll have to really readjust for this game though and you’d expect them to take a similar road as to when they played Chelsea.

Arsenal have some important players in their squad but no one has been playing better for them than Lucas Torreira who will need to be at the top of his game in this match. Manchester City have such a strong midfield lineup and his defensive ability will be crucial in shielding the rather weak backline that Arsenal have. He is making an exceptional 4.3 tackles and interception per 90 while also making 64.2 passes while having scored 2 and assisted 2 in the Premier League this season. This all round ability that he has will be very important in trying to win the battle against midfielders who are themselves very well balanced players as he’ll be the player to break up City’s dangerous passing moves. Lacazette will be important on the attacking end as his clinical ability will be needed against a side who won’t give Arsenal many chances. Although many think that Aubameyang has been a better striker than Lacazette this season, when you look at their numbers you can see that Lacazette is a more well rounded attacking player while Aubameyang simply acts as a goalscorer. He is taking 2.7 shots per 90, however, the more impressive part of his game is how he is also incorporating 1.2 key passes and 1.4 dribbles per 90 as well. Although Aubameyang's finishing ability is very important in smaller games, Lacazette range of skills will be necessary as Arsenal are going to find it harder to create chances than usual.

Manchester City have very few injury problems at the moment with only Bravo, Kompany and Mendy out for this match. However, while Bravo and Kompany have only been bit part players and can be easily replaced, Mendy provides more of a problem for the home side. Although Mendy has now been out for a long period of time, Manchester City are definitely still missing him which has been shown by some of their recent performances. His attacking threat down the left side is menacing and without him Manchester City could struggle to find attacking routes. Arsenal are struggling badly with injuries with Sokratis, Holding, Koscielny, Bellerin, Maitland-Niles, Mkhitaryan and Welbeck all with injury problems of various importance. The big thing that you notice when you look at this list is the amount of defenders that Arsenal could be missing as Sokratis, Holding and Bellerin are set to miss out for sure while Koscielny could still play depending on how serious his jaw injury is. This leaves Arsenal with only Mustafi and Mavropanos fit to play centre-back and City’s attackers will lick their lips when they see this.

This game could play a crucial role in deciding the title and possibly deciding whether or not Arsenal will make it into the Champions League. Manchester City are 5 points off of 1st place Liverpool now and they’ll need to continue their impressive form against the big teams in this match, leaving some of their recent form behind them. However, although Manchester City have looked weak in a few of their previous matches they will come into the match as strong favourites for a couple of reasons. First of all, their home form is impeccable as they have won 12 of their last 13 home matches scoring at least 2 in all of their last 13 home matches. This will be frightening for a defence who have conceded 33 goals already this season. Also, Manchester City have been great against the bigger sides winning 3 of their 5 matches against the top 6 while also beating Arsenal in the reverse fixture. Because of this, even with Manchester City’s shaky form recently, I predict a 2-1 win for them.