GW 24: Liverpool vs. Leicester

After a weekend full of domestic cup football we will be looking forward to this midweek set of fixtures in which Liverpool take on Leicester. Both teams have been enjoying fruitful league campaigns up to this point as Liverpool are top of the league while Leicester have found themselves in the top 10 which is the sort of area that you think they would be targeting. However, neither team as it the pinnacle of their seasons as they have both been experiencing some shaky form recently. Still though, Liverpool’s home form has stayed solid and with this important advantage of playing at their own ground they look to be strong favourites in the match. Their recent form against Leicester could also be telling, as Liverpool have won their last 3 Premier League games against Leicester while they've won 6 of their last 7 home matches against them. This means that Liverpool won the reverse fixture between them earlier on in the season, which ended up 2-1 in Liverpool’s favour. The match was a closely contested affair but Liverpool arguably should have come out on top by even more with an error from Allison costing them a goal. With Liverpool at home in this match though, and as they’ll be feeling confident having now built up a substantial bit of form , you would think they’d win this upcoming match.

Liverpool have had a superb season up to this point only dropping 9 points so far as they have won 19 of their 23 matches while only losing 1. After their loss to Manchester City 3 weeks ago they have rebounded back to their usual form disposing of both Brighton and Crystal Palace before coming into this match. In Leicester’s last game, they struggled with the pace of Jota and you might expect them to face similar problems again due to the extreme pace of Liverpool’s front 3. This could lead Liverpool to playing Salah up front so that he can capitalize on the clunkiness of players like Morgan and Maguire and use his pace and trickery to get in behind. Liverpool’s last game was not one of their best performances as they struggled past Crystal Palace to win 4-3. This was one of their worst defensive performances of the season as they conceded 3 goals which is more than any other match so far. Expected goals did have the match down as a Liverpool win though as the game had a predicted score of 2.82 to 0.82 showing that they did definitely deserve to win the match, however, the performance will need to be improved as Leicester have been a better side than Palace over the course of this current season.

Mo Salah is currently enduring another brilliant season for Liverpool and his contribution should be crucial in the match ahead. In 22 starts and 1 substitute appearance, Salah has managed 16 goals and 7 assists as he is top of the league for goals, managing a direct goal contribution every 84 minutes in the Premier League. His underlying numbers have been incredible as well, as he is taking 3.2 shots per game, making 2.1 key passes per game and also 2 dribbles. As mentioned earlier, his pace should be frightening for defenders who have already struggled this season against fast opposition and after Leicester’s disaster last week with playing Danny Simpson at right-back you would expect Puel would drop Pereira back into defence. Pereira likes to make forward runs and Robertson could be important in transitioning the ball into the areas that he leaves open and exposed as he’ll be playing on the left side for Liverpool. He has been one of Liverpool’s best players this season not only because of his incredible defensive ability but his pace and passing ability in the attack have helped Liverpool through many games this season. He is making 1.4 key passes a game from defence which could be important in this match as Leicester are very poor when defending on the break.

Up to this point, Leicester have had an unnoteworthy start to the season as they have found themselves in 9th, 13 points off the top 6 and and extraordinary 29 points off Liverpool which highlights the difference between the top sides and some of the mid table teams. Surprisingly, Leicester have been a better side away from home this season as they have gained 3 more points when away than when they’ve been at home, however, this shouldn’t serve as too much of an advantage considering how good Liverpool have been when at home. Leicester have been in really poor form recently with 3 losses in their last 4, losing to teams Cardiff and Southampton in this period. They also played quite badly in their last match as they struggled defensively losing 4-3 to Wolves. It was quite an even match overall, with both sides trading goal for goal in the match until Diogo Jota wrapped up the game in the 93rd minute. From Leicester’s point of view, there are some positives in the match as they were able to score 3 against a solid defensive side and if Maguire wasn’t out through injury they might have performed better, however, their defending was still atrocious in the match as their players were constantly beaten by pace which will need massive improvement against an even stronger attacking side.

Maguire, who missed part of the last game through injury , will need to be at the top of his game against such a potent attacking force. His injury problems have affected his team greatly this season which was shown in the last match as he came off after 47 minutes allowing Wolves to score 2 preventable goals. His defensive stats haven’t been brilliant this season as he is making 2.6 tackles and interceptions and you would expect him to be pushed to his limit in this match as he was by Liverpool a couple of times last season. Another talent of his could be important in this match though as his aerial threat and his ability to score from set pieces could offer Leicester an escape route and a differential option. He is taking 1 shot per game at the moment proving that he does like to go forwards and is often the main target on set pieces. James Maddison, who will most likely be delivering these set pieces, could also be impactful on the match. His attacking creativity could be devastating in the match and you feel he’ll be one of the only players in the Leicester squad who might be able to break through Liverpool’s solid defensive unit. He is making an incredible 2.6 key passes per match at the moment and his service to Vardy in particular could help Leicester gain points in the match.

Liverpool have a number of worrying problems that could keep players out, particularly at the back. Gomez, Alexander-Arnold and Wijnaldum all have relatively serious injury issues while Van Dijk and Fabinho could both miss through illness and Milner will be suspended. This means Liverpool could be missing their two best centre-backs in Van Dijk and Gomez while they’ll definitely be missing their usual right-back and back up right-back. This means a centre back pairing of Lovren and Matip could be used which hasn’t been very successful in the past. They’ll also be slightly limited in central midfield if Fabinho does have to miss the game, which could allow Maddison to thrive in the match. Leicester have a big advantage in terms of injuries in this match as only Amartey is injured from their senior squad. This injury has been long term though and you would think that Leicester could definitely sort out suitable replacements. However, he was playing quite well as a right-back in early games and without him in the squad, Pereira might have to drop deeper which could limit his attacking threat.

Although Leicester will come into this match as underdogs, Liverpool have a few things running against them with the amount of injuries they have to their squad and also their form as of late hasn’t been at the level that it was at at the beginning of the season. However, their home advantage and the fact that they have just endured a 11 day break due to them being knocked out of the FA cup means they are most likely feeling confident ahead of the match. As mentioned earlier, Liverpool have been superb at home all through this season and last as they are undefeated in their last 32 home matches and they have also scored 4 or more goals in their last 3 Premier League home matches. Due to this impressive home record, I believe Liverpool will win 2-0.