GW 23: Wolves vs. Leicester

The first game of the weekend takes us to Molineux as Wolves play Leicester in what looks to be very important match in the dog fight that has taken over the middle of the table. Both sides have been inconsistent over the course of the season making it hard to guess at who might win the match especially as only 2 points separate the sides. Neither of the teams have been in great form recently either, as they both lost their last league matches. Over the past few years, this contest has been very even, and in the last 6 matches between the two sides, Leicester have won 3 times, Wolves have one 2 times and their has been 1 draw. In the reverse fixture between them, earlier on in the season, Leicester came out on top winning 2-0 and although Leicester won by 2, the match was an extremely tight contest with great defensive showings from both sides. They only managed a total of 17 shots between them with Wolves taking 11 of these as Wolves came out on top in terms of expected goals 1.09 to 0.22. You’d expect another close matchup this time but with Wolves at home the tables could turn.

Wolves lost again last time out and have now lost their last 2 Premier League matches only winning 1 out of their last 5 in the competition. This has brought them outside the top 10 as they are now 11th on 29 points. Although this is a good return for a side who have just achieved promotion, given their start to the season they might have expected more as they have recently dropped off. A big problem for them in this match will be the red card Willy Boly sustained last match as he has been one of their stand out players this season and Nuno Espirito Santos might have to move away from his favoured 3-4-3 formation to compensate for this loss.  Although Wolves have home advantage that in the match, it shouldn’t help them too much as they have actually gained 1 less point when at home than they have when they’ve been away, even though they’ve played the same amount of matches. Their last match will have definitely brought them back to reality as they were stunned by a superb Manchester City side. As mentioned before, Willy Boly was sent off in only the 18th minute and Wolves couldn’t recover from this as they went on to get thrashed 3-0. Expected goals show how dominant City were in the match as the match was predicted at 3.12 to 0.10 as Wolves only had 3 shots in the entire match compared to City’s 24. Although the match this weekend should be easier for them, they have to be able to bounce back after such a devastating defeat.

With Boly out, Coady will be very important in keeping Wolves’ defence intact and will have to play even better than usual considering they’ll be weaker throughout their back line. He arguably hasn't been as good as Boly this season but he has been solid at the back and his leadership has been key to Wolves’ early success in the Premier League. He is currently making 2 tackles and interceptions a game and is only being dribbles passed 0.5 times a game showing that he is a very consistent figure at the heart of defence. He’s also competing 44 passes per match with an 84% pass accuracy and he is making an incredible 7 long balls per match. This shows that he is a very accurate distributor and his passing ability will be important in the match. Jamie Vardy is a clinical finisher and Wolves won’t be able to allow him any space inside their penalty box as he has shown his supreme finishing ability so many times over the past few seasons. Joao Moutinho has been another great player for Wolves this season and his presence should be felt in this match. Although his attacking output has often been praised, his defensive contribution really stands out when you look at his stats. His defensive stats might be boosted slightly as Wolves are a team who sit off the ball quite frequently, only keeping an average of 46% possession. However, he is still making an incredible 4.3 tackles and interceptions per match. He is also making 46 passes and 1.6 key passes every match. His underrated defensive ability will be crucial in this match though as, from centre-midfield, he is in a prime position to stop Leicester from scoring on counter attacks as they like to do.

Just like Wolves, Leicester have had a season with both ups and downs but they’ve found themselves in the top 10 as they are in 8th place. Leicester are one of the best counter attacking sides in the league as they have scored 5 counter attacking goals up to this point. This is largely due to their progression from their full backs as they use the pace and power of Chilwell and Pereira to drive at the opposition back line before laying it off to either Vardy or Maddison. This has been a very effective strategy for them so far and you would expect Wolves might have trouble dealing with it if their own wing backs push too far forward. In the Premier League Leicester have won 3 of their last 5 but only 1 from their last 2 as their results have been continuously unpredictable throughout the entirety of the season. In their last game they narrowly lost to Southampton who are seemingly revitalised after the arrival of Ralph Hasenhuttl as their new manager. The final score was 2-1 to Southampton but expected goals suggests that maybe it should have ended a draw as the game was predicted at 1.42 to 1.43 in Southampton’s favour, showing just how close the game was. Leicester dominated possession though with 72%, and had more shots, 23 to 8, and shots on target, 6 to 3, but Southampton were more clinical, creating better chances despite only having a 55% pass accuracy. Leicester will need to improve their finishing ability as Wolves will give them even less room in the box than Southampton did and Leicester will need to  finish all their high quality chances if they want any points from the match.

Ricardo Pereira, who was mentioned just a moment ago, has been superb for Leicester this season after signing from Porto in the summer. He fits Puel’s system perfectly and has been very useful in numerous roles for Leicester up to this point. He is making an incredible 6 tackles and interceptions at the moment and he has made the most tackles out of any Premier League player on 80. He is also providing when going forwards as he is making 0.8 key passes and 1.5 dribbles per match while also taking 0.8 shots from full back. He might be slightly limited in this match though as he thrives when Leicester are counter attacking and the fact that Wolves typically play counter attacking football themselves could harm his playing style. However, he will still be a very useful player and he could be used further up the field in a winger position, in order to break their deep lying defence down. Maddison might also be crucial in exploiting their defence as his creative contribution has been good up to this point. Maddison, who has operated on both the left wing and down the centre this season, has been a very good all round attacker for Leicester  as he is putting up good numbers in shots, dribbles and key passes. He is currently making 3 key passes per 90 minutes as well as 2.4 shots and 1.4 dribbles. With such an array of talents Wolves might have trouble dealing with his attacking prowess especially with Boly missing.

Wolves have no injury problems to their squad but as already discussed, Willy Boly will miss out on the game due to the red card he picked up last week. This will massively hurt their chances in the match as he has been their stand out defender up to this point and they lose a lot of their composure on the ball when he’s not playing. Without him, Wolves might be forced to use Dendoncker or Saiss at the back who have both had very limited first team action this campaign and additionally,  they both like playing further up the field. Leicester aren’t facing too many problems either with only Evans and Amartey out injured. Although both of these players have been quite involved in Leicester’s season so far, neither of them are crucial players to the first team and they both have very good replacements. Neither team will be badly affected by injury in this match which means we should see both teams at the top of their game.

After watching the first match between the sides, and looking at the table, their looks to be very little between the teams at the moment, especially considering that if Wolves had won the reverse fixture, as expected goals would suggest they should have, they would be ahead of Leicester in the table. When you look at the stats, they suggest we could be in for a low scoring game as their haven’t been more than 2 goals in any of Leicester’s last 6 away games while the same goes for 8 of  Wolves’ last 10 home games. Leicester have actually been a better side away from home this season, similarly to Wolves, and the fact that they are away might actually be a benefit to their chances in the match. However, this strong away from coincides with the fact that Leicester’s results have been very random this season as they have beaten teams like Manchester City and Chelsea while losing to teams like Southampton and Cardiff in a 5 week period. The match should be very close, but it’s very hard to predict who will come out on top due to the inconsistency of both teams up to this point. Personally, I believe Leicester will scrape by Wolves and win 2-1.