GW 23: Arsenal vs. Chelsea

The big match of the weekend is a London derby between 2 high quality teams in Arsenal and Chelsea. Both teams started the season strong but due to a number of recent occurrences they’ve both struggled for form in recent weeks. Chelsea are currently 6 points ahead of Arsenal, however, only 1 place separates the sides with Chelsea in 4th and Arsenal in 5th. While Arsenal have been very suspect at the back recently, it has been the opposite for Chelsea as they’re have trouble finding the back of the net. Although Chelsea might have had more success over the past few years, Arsenal have edged them in this fixture winning 2 of the last 6 matches against their rivals while Chelsea have only won 1. However, in the Premier League, Chelsea have been much more dominant as they haven’t lost against Arsenal in their last 4 Premier League meetings winning 2 and drawing 2. This includes the reverse fixture this season, where Chelsea came out on top 3-2 in a frantic match. Arsenal are a much stronger team at home though and with the change in ground we could see a change in result.

After a great spell earlier on in the season, Arsenal are starting to fall apart with their defensive frailties massively showing in recent matches. They now haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last 6 matches and whenever they play, they look like conceding, which was capitalized on by Liverpool. Arsenal have now only won twice from their last 6 and once from their last 4, as they have really descended into a period of bad form. Another problem for Arsenal this season has been their form against the bigger clubs as they have lost 3 and drawn 2, only winning 1. Their form at home though is promising, as they’ve won all but 3 matches when at the Emirates, only losing once, against City. Their last match was another disappointing away game as they lost 1-0 to West Ham with their usually potent attack not making many inroads. In terms of expected goals, the match was very even as it was predicted at 0.69 to 0.67 in Arsenal’s favour with both teams having the same amount of shots in the match (11). However, Declan Rice turned one of the rare chances in the match into a goal which got West Ham through the match with all 3 points. Arsenal will need to massively improve for this match and, slightly unusually, they will especially need to work on their chance creation and finishing ability.

Chelsea have a very dominant midfield and Lucas Torreira will be key in combating their dynamic trio. He is currently making an outstanding 4.2 tackles and interceptions per 90 which is really good considering how much of the ball Arsenal tend to have. His attacking numbers have also been alright as he is taking 1 shot per 90 as well as 0.5 dribbles and 0.6 key passes. In this game, you’d expect him to play a more defensive role than usual as he’ll have a big job ahead of him marking some of the best central midfielders in the Premier League. Aubameyang, who is currently the joint top scorer in the Premier League with 14 goals, will be another important player for Arsenal. His finishing ability and positioning will be incredibly important as Chelsea have been quite sound defensively over the course of the season. His attacking numbers haven’t been brilliant this season as he is only taking 2.6 shots per game which compared to Salah’s 3.3, Kane’s 3.5 and Aguero’s 3.7 looks quite meager. However, it has been his finishing ability that has really stood out and he still has as many or more goals than any of the aforementioned strikers, showing how effective he has been at taking his chances. The big problem for Aubameyang in this game will be the lack of space he will be given as he is a player who thrives when the opposition play an open and expansive game. Chelsea though, play quite deep and Cesar Azpilicueta likes to squeeze in from that right hand side so Aubameyang might find problems creating space for himself inside the box.

Chelsea started the season superbly but, like Arsenal, have recently found themselves in a slump of form. Although not nearly as bad as Arsenal, they have only won 3 of their last 5 games drawing against Southampton and losing to Leicester in this period. This isn’t a terrible run but it has meant that their chances of grabbing the title are essentially over as they’ve fallen in to 4th place, 10 points off league leaders Liverpool. This is an incredibly important game for them, as with Arsenal always looking a threat and with Manchester United experiencing a resurgence in form, a top 4 finish and a Champions League spot is far from guaranteed at this stage. Luckily for Chelsea, their away form has actually been quite solid this season as they have gained 22 out of a possible 30 points when away from home, only losing 1 match. They’ll need to keep up their good away form though as Arsenal have been much better when at home this season. Chelsea’s last match was a narrow 2-1 victory over Newcastle as they again looked shaky, definitely not playing at the top of their level. In the match, expected goals predicted Chelsea would win 1.32 to 0.40 as Chelsea only took 10 shots to Newcastle’s 9. Chelsea did, however, dominate the possession with 66% and overall they were pretty comfortable in the match despite not looking their best.

David Luiz will be crucial in the match ahead, as Arsenal have an absolutely lethal attacking lineup. He is experiencing a renaissance of a season at the moment as he has gone from being frozen out of the squad under Conte to being quite possibly Chelsea’s most important defensive while player under Sarri. Although you can’t expect great defensive numbers from a side who keep so much possession, Luiz is still making 2.1 tackles and interceptions a game as well as 4.7 clearances. Against the bigger sides, Luiz is putting up much better numbers though as he is making 3 tackles and interceptions per game when playing against other top 6 clubs. His passing statistics are some of the best in the league as well with him making just over 80 passes per match as well as 6.5 successful long balls as he has established himself as one of the best passers from the back over the course of the season. This passing ability has been used to spring counter attacks in the past, and with Arsenal’s poor defensive record, he could be able to help out on the attacking end of the spectrum. Of course, Hazard will also be important as he has directly contributed to 20 goals in just 18 starts this season. He is quite possibly the best player in the league at current as he is taking 2.7 shots per game, making 2.8 key passes and making 3 dribbles per game showcasing his wonderful all round attacking play. In the game at hand, you would expect him to run riot against Arsenal's poor defence as his ability to find gaps is better than any player in the league.

Arsenal are much better off in terms of injuries than they were a few weeks ago but they still have a few problems affecting their first team. Holding, Mavropanos, Mkhitaryan and Welbeck are all going to miss this match for sure which could be a real blow to their chances in the match. Holding will be the most important of this injuries as he was playing really well and really embedding himself into the side before he picked up an anterior cruciate ligament injury a few weeks ago. Mkhitaryan will also be a big miss as Arsenal are lacking wide players at the moment. If Arsenal do have to play a more central player out wide, they might not be able to fully capitalize on the space that will be left by Marcos Alonso when he bombs forwards, and their counter- attacking play could be slightly limited. Chelsea are very lucky in terms of injuries at the moment as only Ruben Loftus-Cheek will be missing for this clash. Loftus-Cheek has been a useful player this season but he is not a usual starter and Chelsea should be able to do fine without him available.

With the teams only separated by 1 place coming into the match, this looks to be one of the most important fixtures in deciding the fate of the final team in the top 4. Arsenal are currently 12th in the form table which really highlights what they’ve gotten themselves into, however, they have won 13 of their last 16 home matches and they look a much better side when they’re at their own stadium. Chelsea have been good when away though, as they’ve won their last 3 away games, each by a margin of 1 goal. Neither team are looking at their best at the moment but hopefully they’ll be able to rise to the occasion and give us an exciting London Derby. I predict that the final score will be a 1-1 draw.