GW 22: Manchester City vs. Wolves

Manchester City against Wolves wraps up this week’s set of fixtures as Manchester City will be looking to keep their momentum going after beating first place Liverpool last weekend. Both teams have recently entered a patchy bit of form with Manchester City losing 3 of their last 6 while Wolves have lost 2 and drawn 1 of their last 6 with neither teams looking at their strongest at the moment. An important aspect of this game will be the ground it’s being played at as Manchester City are a much more dominant side when at their own ground. When at home, they have earned 30 from a possible 33 points while away they have only earned 20 from 28. The history of this fixture might also suggest that Manchester City would run away with the match, as they’ve won 5 and drawn 1 of their last 6 matches against the Wanderers. However, the reverse fixture at the beginning of the season showed that Wolves have the strength and character to make themselves difficult as they forced a 1-1 draw out of the match.

At the beginning of the season, City looked to have been just as good if not better than they were in their title winning campaign last year, but things have started to change as they have struggled in a few of their recent matches. They’ve only lost 3 times this season but all of these losses have been within their last 6 games. They might be back on track now though as they’ve won their last 2 and are starting to rebuild as they’re only 4 points off first place Liverpool. As mentioned earlier, their home form is immaculate as they are undefeated in 36 of their last 38 home Premier League matches. Also, City have an incredible scoring record when at the Etihad as they’ve scored 2 or more in their last 12 home matches. Their last match was a brilliant home win over Liverpool as they narrowly came out on top 2-1. The game was incredibly close and well contested and Liverpool actually came out on top in terms of expected goals as it was 1.38 to 1.18. There were only a total of 17 shots in the match as the defending was brilliant from both sides. The possession was also incredibly close as Liverpool edged it with 51%. Overall, Manchester City’s superior finishing ability came out on top as they took their chances better than Liverpool did to win the match

Fernandinho was superb in their last match and has been the building block off of which Manchester City have achieved so much success over recent years. A couple of weeks ago, Fernandinho was out injured for 2 weeks and Manchester City lost both their games that he was absent for against Crystal Palace and Leicester. He is the perfect all round player and both his defensive and offensive contributions have been superb this season. On the defensive side, he is making 3.7 tackles and interceptions a game as well as 2.7 clearances. This is incredible considering how Manchester City keep an average 63% possession. He is also making 73 passes a match along with 0.8 key passes as he really controls the whole midfield area for City. What’s even more impressive, is the fact that his attacking contribution is so good from defensive midfield. He is currently taking 1.1 shots per game as well as 0.8 dribbles and is only losing possession once every 2 matches. Bernardo Silva has been another really good centre-mid for City and has slotted in to De Bruyne’s role seamlessly. After playing as a winger in previous seasons, he has adapted to his new role brilliantly and his supreme defensive numbers show this. This season he is making 2.2 tackles and interceptions  per match compared to last season when he was only making 1.1. Also, in his last match against Liverpool, he managed a total of 7 tackles and interceptions. However, in this match, his defensive output might not be as important as his attacking as Wolves are a team who don’t like to have too much possession and who are very defensively equipped.

Wolves have had a very inconsistent season thus far but you would think that they’d be happy with their achievements up to this point considering it is their first season back in the Premier League. At the moment, they are in the top 10 and sit 9th only 2 points off 7th place Leicester. They’ve been incredibly strong in defence this season and they currently have the 6th least goals conceded only letting in 25 from the first 21 matches. They’ve also been extremely consistent against the bigger sides winning 2 and drawing 3 in their 7 matches against the “top 6” as they’ve consistently upsetted the bigger sides. This fight and determination will definitely be needed in this match as Wolves will look to make it difficult for City yet again. In Wolves’ last match they played poorly losing 2-0 to a struggling Crystal Palace side. Expected goals had the match at 1.88 to 0.66 in Palace’s favour as a close range strike from Ayew and a penalty from Milivojevic sealed the win for Palace. In the match, Wolves edged the possession with 52% but failed to make the most of it only taking 9 shots with only 1 finding the target. When you compare this to Crystal Palace's 17 shots and 4 on target you can see why Wolves weren’t able to come out on top. In this game, you would definitely expect Wolves to create less chances than City so the most important thing for them will be their ability to finish when in front of goal.

Wolves will need to continue their defensive solidity in this game as there’s no doubt that City are going to hammer them in terms of possession and shots. One of their most consistent defenders for Wolves this season has been Willy Boly and he’ll have to keep his good work up in this match. In the Premier League, he is making a monsterous 4.6 tackles and interceptions per match as well as 4.6 clearances showing that he is constantly involved in Wolves’ defensive play. As the left sided central defender, he’ll likely have to play up against Aguero and Sterling who are both fantastic players in good form, so his defensive actions could change the course of the game. Another Wolves player to watch out for is Ruben Neves, as his all round play from defensive midfield has been superb this campaign. At the moment, Neves is making 4.5 tackles and interceptions a game which is only marginally worse than Boly. However, Neves’ most impressive attribute might be his passing play as he is making 55 passes per match and an incredible 6.7 accurate long balls. He is also taking 2.4 shots per game and 0.8 key passes from a deep lying midfielder position. However, almost all of his shots are from long range and one of his biggest weaknesses are his shot locations. Both of these players will be very important to their team as Manchester City will most likely have most of the ball and these players will need to keep up their impressive defensive numbers.

Manchester City aren’t struggling too badly from injuries at the moment but Mendy is still recovering while Kompany and Aguero could both miss out. Both Mendy and Kompany can be easily replaced by competent players however, Aguero’s injury provides a much more serious problem as he has been one of their best attacking players this season. His performance against Liverpool in their last match was phenomenal and if he isn’t able to play, City might find it tough to score against a really solid backline. At the moment, Wolves have no injuries facing their senior squad which is crucial considering the level of talent that their opponents have at their disposal. In the match Wolves will need every one of their important players fit and the fact that they have no injuries gives them a huge advantage in the match considering City could have a few key players missing.

With Manchester City seemingly back to their usual best, it will be very hard to break through their defence and possibly even harder to stop them from breaking through. Wolves have a very well structured back line but so do Liverpool and Manchester City were able to score 2 goals on the best defence in the league last time. It makes it even harder for Wolves considering how good City’s home form is however, Wolves have done well against City before and it seems like they might have the formula to beating bigger sides as they’ve been really good at upsetting teams this season. Overall, I think it will be a very tough and tense match but Manchester City’s home form would suggest a win for them. I believe it will be a 2-1 win to City.