GW 18: Everton vs. Tottenham

This Sunday, 3rd place takes on 8th as Tottenham visit Goodison Park. The teams are in very different circumstances in terms of form as Tottenham have won 3 on the bounce while Everton haven’t won in their last 4 PL matches. Everton’s home form will be very worrying for Tottenham though as Everton are unbeaten in all of their last 6 home Premier League matches. However, Everton’s record against the top 6 is very poor as they’ve lost 4 and drawn 1 against the “top 6” sides which shows they might not have the firepower to get passed Tottenham. Tottenham are unbeaten in their last 11 matches against Everton and in their last 6 they have 3 wins and 3 draws winning both last season with a total goal difference of 7-0. With the good form that Tottenham are in, and with Everton on a seemingly downwards spiral, you might expect a similar result to what we have seen in recent years.

After a promising start to the season, Everton have started slowing down, seeing them drop from 6th to 8th place in the table. Although they have had some difficult fixtures in recent weeks, they have drawn with teams such as Watford and Newcastle over their last 4 gameweeks and this can definitely be improved on. Although they’ve struggled recently, their home form is incredible as they’re in 5th place on the home table, 1 place ahead of Tottenham. They have only lost 1 home game this season so they might expect to get at least a draw in this game. Everton’s last match was a 3-1 loss to City where they might have deserved better than what they got. Although City dominated the game, Everton created some great scoring opportunities with expected goals having the game at 1.80 to 1.62 in Manchester City’s favour, showing how close the game was. In the match Everton weren’t clinical enough, with Richarlison and Walcott missing some big chances that could have kept Everton in the match. This finishing needs to improve because you would expect that Tottenham won’t allow Everton too many chances in the match.

Richarlison could be a very important player in this match as he is Everton’s top scorer so far this season and will be counted on to deliver in front of goal. Over his last 3 appearances, he has taken 11 shots averaging nearly 4 a game, and his ability to get into good positions and to get shots away will be crucial against such a solid defence. He is also making 1.4 dribbles and 0.7 key passes per game showing that he is important in other areas of Everton’s attacking play. Lucas Digne will also be important as both his attacking and defensive contributions have been brilliant in recent weeks. Defensively, Digne is making 3.7 tackles and interceptions a game as well as 2.3 clearances showing how he is really adapting to playing in the Premier league. His attacking contribution has been just as important as he making an incredible 2.3 key passes per match as well as 1.1 shots and he is really proving himself looking to be a more than adequate replacement for Leighton Baines. In the match, he’ll be up against either Lucas Moura or Dele Alli who are both in top form and his defensive quality will need to show.

Tottenham have been in good form recently and will want to keep their good run going as they come up against this Everton side. They’ve now won 3 on the bounce and have looked to have recovered from their loss against Arsenal a few game weeks ago. These 3 wins have contributed to an overall run of form where they have won 10 of their last 12, only losing to Arsenal and Manchester City in this period. Although Tottenham are away, it shouldn’t affect them too much as they have won 6 of their last 7 games when away from home and look to be just as solid when away as they are when at home. Tottenham’s last match was a 1-0 win against Burnley where they left it until the 91st minute to score the winner. Although Tottenham scored late on in the match, they were dominant throughout the game as expected goals had the match at 1.75 to 0.45 in Tottenham’s favour. To further highlight their dominance, Tottenham didn’t allow Burnley to have a single shot on target in the match while they had 4. This last result is a bit worrying for Tottenham though, as Everton are a much better side than Burnley and they will definitely create more chances to punish the Tottenham backline.

Christian Eriksen will be the main attacking player for Tottenham and will be looking to punish the Everton backline like he has to other teams over the last few weeks. In only 9 Premier League starts he has scored 1 goal and provided 6 assists with 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 4 matches. He’s an incredible creative player which is highlighted by the fact that he has 13 key passes over his last 5 matches. This creative power will be essential to Tottenham as Everton have been playing with a deep defensive line lately. Heung Min Son will be another important attacking player for them and will be the player most likely to finish the chances Eriksen will be creating. Son has been in superb form in recent matches and has been punishing almost every team he comes up against. In his last 4 starts he has scored 3 goals and produced 1 assist as he is starting to become Tottenham’s main threat in front of goal along with Harry Kane. His shot numbers are very good as he is taking 2.1 shots per game from a left midfield position. Again, Everton have had a very solid back line in recent weeks and Son’s dribbling and finishing ability will be important in unlocking their defence.

Everton have very few injury woes and only Idrissa Gueye has the potential to miss out. If he can’t play, it would be a massive problem for Everton as he has been one of their key players throughout this season as he currently has more tackles than any other Premier League player. Against such a strong attacking side, his presence will definitely be missed if he’s not fit by match day. Tottenham are struggling through quite a few more injuries as Vertonghen, Aurier, Dier, Dembele and Wanyama all have injuries of varying importance. Aurier is the only player who could be back for the game while all of the others aren’t expected to be back until mid January or later. This is a big worry for Tottenham, not only for this game, but also for the next few weeks as they are now very limited in central midfield which could keep them from keeping possession. Everton might be able to dominate the midfield in this match as Spurs will most likely have to play 2 younger players as defensive midfielders. This is also a problem defensively for Spurs as they have lost their 3 most defensive midfielders and might have to play attacking players further back.

Although Everton come into the game as underdogs, they have home advantage in the match and with the amount of injuries Tottenham have in central midfield, Everton could manage to come out on top. However, when you look at their recent record against Tottenham it doesn’t look hopeful as they haven’t won in 11 games against the North London side. To add on to this pain, Tottenham won both of the games last season as well as scoring 3 or more goals in each of their last 3 games against Everton. Also, Everton have bad in recent weeks and their form will need to improve both against Tottenham and overall in the league. Because of Everton’s recent poor form, I believe Tottenham will win 1-0.