GW 18: Chelsea vs. Leicester

This Saturday, Chelsea come up against the out of form Leicester City. Chelsea are currently in 4th place 8 points off of Liverpool, while Leicester are in the bottom half of the table on 12th place. Recently, Chelsea have bounced back after a bad period for them, whereas for Leicester, it's the opposite as they have been poor over their last few fixtures. Both teams are in the the top half of the average possession table, however, Leicester have scored the joint most counterattack goals and will look to punish this Chelsea side who are keeping an average of 63% possession. In the last few matches against Leicester, Chelsea have been completely dominant with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 matches. Last season Chelsea drew this exact fixture as both teams failed to score in a 0-0 draw, however, with both teams good attacking sides and with Leicester not having a brilliant defensive record, you would expect a different result.

It seems that Chelsea are back to winning ways after a couple of losses a few weeks ago, as they have now won their last 2 matches, including a fantastic win against Manchester City. However, their slight slip in form a few weeks ago has cost them badly and they are now down to 4th place behind Spurs and are 8 points behind league leaders Liverpool. As mentioned earlier, Chelsea are a very possession based side which could end up costing them if they allow Leicester quick breaks through players such as Vardy and Gray who are both very pacey. A very promising aspect of the match for Chelsea, is that they are at home where they are undefeated in their last 12 Premier League matches keeping clean sheets in their last 3. Their last match was a 2-1 away win against mid table side Brighton. Although they only won 2-1, it was quite a comfortable match for them as they were up by 2 by the 34th minute. In the match they had 58% possession and allowed Brighton just 6 shots with only 2 finding the target. Expected goals predicted the match at quite a similar result predicting Chelsea to win 1.42 to 0.26.

In the match, Hazard will be crucial just like he has been throughout the season and in their last match. He now has an outstanding 17 goal contributions with 8 goals and 9 assists after just 13 starts. He is a completely all rounded attacking player as he is currently taking 2.7 shots per game as well a 2.6 dribbles and 2.9 key passes. He is also making 50 passes a match showing that he is heavily involved in all of Chelsea’s play. He’s is currently in top form as well, as he managed a goal and an assist in his last match. Leicester haven’t been brilliant in defence this season and you would think that Hazard might be able to cut through them like he did against Brighton. David Luiz will be important at the heart of defence for Chelsea, as he has had a major resurgence this season under Sarri. He is currently making 2.1 tackles and interceptions per game which is superb when playing in such a possession based side. To put this in perspective, it’s 0.4 more than Rudiger, 0.3 more than Laporte and only 0.1 less than Van Dijk who are all regarded as the Premier League’s most elite central defenders. A key aspect of David Luiz’s game though is passing as he is making 79 passes per match along with 0.4 key passes from centre back. His passing ability will be very important in the match as Chelsea will want to retain possession as much as possible.

Leicester have had a season with many ups and downs so far, and they haven’t really been able to keep enough consistency. This has lead them to exiting the top half of the table as they sit in 12th after a couple of bad performances in the past few gameweeks. Leicester are in terrible form at the moment as they only have 1 win from their last 6 matches and have really slowed down from the beginning of the season. They’ve now lost their last 2 games and they will have a very difficult time coming up against this strong Chelsea side. Their last game was a disappointing 1-0 loss against Crystal Palace who are struggling for form in 15th place. Even without Zaha, Crystal Palace managed to scrape their way past Leicester with a great strike from Luka Milivojevic in the 38th minute. In the match, Leicester had 56% possession as well as 4 more shots and 1 more shot on target than Palace. Their dominance in the match was further confirmed by expected goals as the game was predicted at 0.92 to 0.40 in Leicester’s favour, really highlighting how unlucky they were not to get any points from the match.

With Maguire back to full fitness after a long term injury, he will definitely be important in keeping out Chelsea’s rampant attack and stopping them from controlling the possession. He is making an outstanding 3.2 tackles and interceptions a match as well as 56 passes. This defensive contribution will be very important as Chelsea will most likely be dominant in the match and he’ll have a lot of work to do. On the attacking end of Leicester’s play, young James Maddison should be pulling the strings and orchestrating their attacks as he has already managed 5 goals and 2 assists this season, meaning he has more goals than any other Leicester player. His attacking stats are quite good as he is taking 1.9 shots per game, making 2.3 key passes and 1.1 dribbles. He has been Leicester’s most creative player by far this season and his ability to break down a defence will be crucial to his side especially on the break.

Chelsea have a few injury problems affecting them at the moment with Moses, Cahill, Hazard and Morata all potentially out. None of these players are guaranteed to miss out though, and most of them should be able to make it back to full fitness come match time. Both Moses and Cahill shouldn’t cause many problems if they were to miss out as they’ve only played 47 Premier League minutes between them this entire season. Morata wouldn’t cause them much damage either but if Hazard were to be missing they’d be in real trouble. As already mentioned, he has been key to their season thus far and if his ankle injury does keep him out, Leicester will have a big advantage in the match. Leicester don’t have too many injury problems but both Chilwell and Vardy could have to sit which would really harm the team. Both of these players have been vital to the team and against such strong opponents, Leicester will need every one of their starters fit to play.

Although Leicester have been in poor form lately and Chelsea are looking good, Leicester are the sort of team who can surprise the bigger sides as they have some very talented players in their squad. If Leicester were at home in this match you might be right to expect an upset, but with Chelsea’s incredible home form they will probably nick the match. Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League home matches and at home this season, they have a plus 12 goal difference after 9 games as they rank 3rd out of all teams according to the home table. Also, if Vardy is missing for this match you feel Leicester won’t be able to get a result without his clinical finishing ability. Because of Chelsea’s home advantage, I predict 2-1 in their favour.