GW 17: Manchester City vs. Everton

The first match in store for us this week is Manchester City against Everton. This match is between two sides who have been performing relatively well lately with City in 2nd and Everton in 7th. Although the teams are only separated by 5 places, the points difference between them shows a different story as Manchester City are 17 points ahead of Everton and only 1 point behind the outstanding Liverpool. Everton have actually been quite good against City in recent years and over the last 6 matches between them, Everton have won 1, City have won 2 and there have been 3 draws. In the 2 matches between the sides last season City got a win and they drew the other, proving that City might have problems against this side who have troubled them in the past. One thing that Manchester City need to watch out for is the fact that they are currently first in terms of average possession and passes per game, which could end up hurting them as Everton are a very good counter attacking side who look to hit them on the break.

Manchester City have been nearly perfect this season but somehow find themselves in 2nd place as they lost their first game of the season, to Chelsea last week. The fact that this is at home though gives City a very big advantage as they’ve won their last 9 home Premier League matches and have won every one of their Premier League home matches this season. To further their fantastic home record, in each of these last 9 wins they’ve scored at least 2 goals, scoring 12 from their last 3. Throughout the season they had managed to stay just ahead of Liverpool until they lost last weekend. This was their first loss of the season as Chelsea managed to beat them 2-0. In the match City dominated possession with 61% but weren’t able to create good enough chances and weren’t clinical enough when chances did come their way. City had 14 shots to Chelsea’s 8 but registered 1 less shot on target with 4 to Chelsea’s 5. Chelsea also came out on top in terms of expected goals as they were expected to win 0.87 to 0.73. Overall, the match was a very equal affair but Chelsea were more clinical on the night and City paid, losing their first Premier League game.

In this game Fernandinho should be incredibly important to City as he is very good at breaking up attacking plays and at keeping possession for his side. He has made 57 tackles and interceptions this season averaging 3.6 a game. He is also making an impressive 74 passes per game with an 88% pass accuracy. His defensive ability will be especially crucial as he’ll be one of the most important player for stopping Everton’s counter attacks. On the more attacking side of things, Mahrez could be crucial if he starts. In his 8 starts this season, he has managed 5 goals and 2 assists and his finishing ability could be very helpful in the match. However, his creative side might be more important to his team, as Everton have recently been solid defensively and have been playing very compactly especially against the better sides. In terms of his creative presence, Mahrez is currently making 0.9 dribbles a game as well as 2.2 shots and 0.6 through balls. All of this will be important when facing this compact defence that Everton have set up.

Everton have been a good team this season but recently they’ve started to lose their good run that they were on. A big problem for Everton is their away form as they have only won 1 of their 7 away games losing 3 and drawing 3. This will be a big problem considering how good City have been when at home. Everton also have a bad record against top quality opposition as they’ve only collected 1 point from 4 games against the teams who are currently above them. Recently, their form has been quite poor as they’re without a win in their last 3 matches. This includes draws to both Newcastle and Watford and a loss to Liverpool in the Merseyside Derby. Also, over their last 7 matches, they’ve only won 2, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their last Premier League match was a 2-2 draw with Watford in which Luca Digne scored a last minute free kick to equalize. The match was very even and a draw was probably a fair result, considering expected goals predicted the match at 1.71 to 1.63 in Everton’s favour. You feel that if they were to get a draw in this match they would be very pleased with their performance.

Jordan Pickford will have a tough day against City but Everton will need him to be at the top of his game for them to get a result. He has been very good this season making just under 3 saves a match and stopping some crucial goal scoring chances. With Manchester City’s incredible number of top class attacking players Pickford will be important at keeping them from finding the back of the net. Idrissa Gueye will also be important and will have a lot of work to do at the heart of Everton’s midfield. He is currently making an outstanding 6.6 tackles and interceptions a match proving his incredible defensive quality. He is also contributing in attack with 53 passes and 0.7 dribbles per match. You would expect that he would be incredibly important especially on the defensive side of things but also in progressing the ball so that his team can keep rare spells of possession.

Manchester City have a few notable injury problems with Danilo, Stones and Aguero all doubts while Mendy, Silva and De Bruyne are certain to miss the match. Silva picked up a bad muscles injury last weekend against Chelsea and isn’t expected to be back until early January. This is a huge problem for City as De Bruyne is also out meaning City are without a true creative central midfielder. Aguero will also be a big miss and with Jesus not in the best of form they might go for 3 wingers up front yet again. This would be a big risk though, as it didn’t work well last time out against Chelsea. The other problems should be easy enough for City to fix. Everton have barely any injury problems with only 1 player in their senior squad potentially sidelined. This is Morgan Schneiderlin who has only played a total of 248 Premier League minutes this season and his absence shouldn’t hurt the squad that much. This is crucial for Everton as they need every one of their usual starters available when playing such a difficult opponent.

With neither team coming into the match in their best of form and with Manchester City’s abundance of injury issues, the game could be closer than we would have expected a couple of weeks ago. Last week City proved that they are not invincible and this will definitely give Everton a lot more hope and confidence when coming into the match. One key aspect of the match is the fact that City are at home where they’ve won their last 9 games scoring 2 or more in all 9. City are also unbeaten in their last 8 home matches against Everton. Combine this with Everton’s poor away record where they would rank 15th in the league counting only away games, and it looks to be a bit of a disaster for the visitors. Because the game is in Manchester, I believe City will gain a comfortable 2-0 win.