GW 15: Watford vs. Manchester City

During the first set of midweek fixtures Watford come up against the unstoppable Manchester City. Both of these teams are incredibly talented and they have both shown their class throughout the season. Man City of course are still top of the table on a total of 38 points winning 12 and drawing only 2 while Watford have moved down to 10th place on 20 points. Man City’s record against Watford should be very encouraging for the reigning champions as they have won their last 8 matches against this  Watford side. Also, City are in scintillating form as they have scored at least 3 goals and each of their last 4 matches and have a total goal tally of 43, averaging more than 3 a game. Watford have conceded a total of 19 goals and will definitely find it difficult to shut out this City side, who have 2 or more goals in their last 8 appearances against the Hornets.

Watford started the season very well but recently they’ve dropped off in form losing 3 and drawing 1 of their last 4 games. It was always to be expected that they were going to start declining but no one really thought that they would start playing this poorly. After winning their first 4 they looked set to finish in the top 10 but after losing to Newcastle and drawing Southampton they are starting to look like a much weaker side than originally expected. A big problem for them lately has been their ability to score goals as they’ve only scored 1 goal in their last 4 games. Against a Man City side who have only conceded 6 from 14, Watford definitely need to become more clinical in front of goal. The stats show that Watford are creating a decent amount of chances as expected goals has them at just over 4 goals from these last 4 games. This shows that maybe it’s a problem with the strikers and not with the creative players around them. To further highlight this, in 2 of the 4 games they took more shots than their opponents but still failed to come out on top.

With Andre Gray not favoured at the moment the finishing will be largely reliant on Gerard Deulofeu. In the Spaniards 6 starts so far, he has managed a goal and an assist and he has been a decent creative player creating 3 big chances. The big problem with Deulofeu this season has been his finishing and goal scoring ability. Only 23% of his 13 total shots have ended up on target and he has missed 3 big chances. This poor finishing is largely up to the fact that he is not a natural centre forward and is playing as a converted winger. Over time though, he will need to step up his numbers in front of goal if he is going to continue playing as a central striker. Much of the defensive responsibility of this match will fall onto Abdoulaye Doucoure. The defensive midfielder hasn’t been as brilliant this season as he was last year but he has still been playing very well. He has made 41 tackles and interceptions this season as well as an incredible 104 recoveries. He has also grabbed 4 assists showing that he is important when going forwards as well.

Manchester City are looking better than ever at the moment and are top of the league table 2 points ahead of Liverpool. They are destroying the rest of the league at the moment as they have scored the most goals on 43 and conceded the second least on only 6. They’ve now won their last 6 games, their last draw coming against Liverpool in early October. City currently have the highest average possession in the league with 64.2% as well as the highest passing accuracy and shots per game. This shows that they are a possession based side who like to keep the ball. In a way, this could play into Watford’s hands as Watford are a side who are firmly based on quick breaks and counter attacking and they might be able to catch City out once or twice during the match as Lyon did in the Champions League. City’s last game was a solid win against Bournemouth. They were quite comfortable in the match winning 3-1 with expected goals predicting the game at 2.83 to 0.27. In the game, City limited Bournemouth to only 4 shots while they had 4 times that on 16. A stat that really highlights City’s style of play is passes allowed per defensive action or PPDA. Bournemouth had a PPDA of 78 in the match which is incredible considering City had only 6. What this means is that Bournemouth allowed City to make an average of 78 passes before they were able to regain the possession.

In this match Raheem Sterling will most likely be the key man in attack for the Citizens. WIth Sergio Aguero potentially missing through injury it will be Sterling’s drive and threat that will need to be closely watched by Watford’s back line. So far this season, he has scored 8 and assisted 6 in the Premier League meaning he has more goal contributions than games at this point. He is a very good finisher scoring more than a quarter of his shots and he’ll likely be the main man in front of goal in this game. Laporte is another player to watch closely as he has been in superb form this season. He has made a very impressive 28 tackles and interceptions and an incredible 90 passes a match. He is also very good when 1 on 1 with a 60% aerial battle win rate and a 58% duel win rate. His tackles success shows that he is very accurate with his tackles as he completes 73% of his attempted tackles. Overall he has been fantastic this season and will be crucial in both fending off the Watford attack and helping in Man City’s own attacking efforts through is incredible long passing.

Watford have a few key players potentially out for this one. Janmaat and Cleverley could miss out with Capoue definitely set to miss the match because of a suspension he picked up last match. Janmaat and Cleverley can both be replaced and are not usual starters but Capoue will be a big miss. He has been very good at the base of midfield for Watford with an outstanding 81 tackles and interceptions. His presence in midfield will definitely be missed against such a talented City side. Man City have a few worrying injury problems but with the depth in their squad they shouldn’t have many problems plugging the gaps. Bravo, Mendy, Zinchenko, De Bruyne and Aguero are all injured for City. The main problems here are Mendy, De Bruyne and Aguero. Luckily for City, Aguero could still be available for the match whereas the other 2 are almost certain to be out. City seem to have very good replacements for these 3 though, and Delph, Bernardo Silva and Jesus should all be able to slot into the team nicely.

With Man City in the form that they’re in, you would expect them to get a good result from this match. City have are now unbeaten in their last 20 Premier League matches showing their domestic consistency and also, the tough task that Watford have ahead of them. In this game you would expect Man City to control the game and keep the possession for large portions of the match, as they have the highest average possession while Watford average a mere 47% of the ball. One interesting statistic to look at is the fact that Watford are the most central team in the Premier League as they have an average central position of 29%, higher than any other Premier League side. This means that Man City will want to hurt them in the wide areas using players like Sterling and Sane to play down the wings. Overall, City don’t look like losing any time soon and I think they’ll capitalize on Watford’s poor form. 2-0 Manchester City.