GW 10: Liverpool vs. Tottenham

Another week of the Premier League features another week of big fixtures, and this week, the biggest and most important game will be Liverpool against Tottenham. As shown by last year’s European competition, these sides are two of the best in the world at the moment, and while they were both finalists in last season’s Champions League, they have gone in opposite directions since then. Liverpool’s win has propelled them to new heights this year, but on the other hand, Tottenham have seemingly struggled to cope with another season without a trophy, and behind the scenes, things don’t look pretty for Spurs. This is showing on the field as well as they currently sit in 7th. As for Liverpool, they are the league leaders at the moment, a full 13 points ahead of their upcoming opponents. When looking back at the past few matches between these sides, this Liverpool dominance becomes even more apparent. Last season these teams faced each other three times, twice in the Premier League and of course once in the Champions League final. Liverpool won all three of these games, scoring 6 in the process while only conceding 2. Considering that Spurs were actually much better last season, this will be incredibly worrying for them, as there is the prospect of an even worse defeat this year.

Liverpool

Liverpool, unlike Tottenham, have continued their incredibly strong form from the previous season, while their results have actually been improving even further. After the first nine gameweeks, they are still unbeaten, with a superb record of 8 wins and 1 draw. This means that they are currently on 25 points from a possible 27, while they sit 6 points ahead of their title rivals Manchester City. Sadly for them though, their Premier League winning streak came to an end in their last match as they drew 1-1 with Manchester United, in a game which saw them fall one win short of the all-time Premier League record for most wins in a row. This was also their first draw of the season, and when analyzing it, they weren't at their best for this game. A draw was probably a fair result, with an expected goals scoreline of 1.03 to 0.79 in Liverpool’s favour. Although this isn’t a terrible outcome, Liverpool will have been expecting more given the poor form of this current United side.

Tottenham have been playing at a similar level to Manchester United this year, and while they might not be as solid defensively, they have stronger individuals in attack. This means that Liverpool will have to adapt their shape and strategy to best counter Tottnenham’s style of play. While it’s always hard to anticipate what formation Spurs are going to use, Liverpool will be expecting a 4-2-3-1, as that is what Pochettino has used in 3 of Spurs’ last 5 games in all competitions. Klopp will, however, need to make sure his system is flexible, and that his side can adapt to a mid game change made by their opponents. This could encourage Klopp to bring in some more attack-minded midfield players, so that he has a blend of talent in the middle of the park. While Henderson and Wijnaldum have typically lined up in front of Fabinho in the Premier League this year, Keita and Oxlade-Chamberlain both started in Liverpool’s midweek Champions League fixture, and were very impressive. While starting both of them might be slightly rash, Klopp could look to use one of them in order to put more attacking pressure on the Spurs midfield.

While Oxlade-Chamberlain grabbed the headlines with his performance against Genk, scoring 2 goals in a 4-1 win, Naby Keita might be the smarter option in this match. Keita was quietly effective against Genk with a superb 110 passes completed, the most in the game. He also completed all 3 of his attempted tackles as well as making 1 interception and completing 75% of his 4 attempted dribbles. This shows that while he can help to drive Liverpool forwards, he offers a solid defensive presence as well, which is something that Klopp will prefer in a tough league game. While Keita won’t provide the biggest attacking boost, his dribbling ability and individual quality on the ball can help progress the ball into more advanced areas, while they don’t lose much defensive output with him in the team.

The addition of one of these more attacking midfielders also gives Firmino an easier task, as he has someone to work off of, in and around the central attacking areas. When Keita or Oxlade Chamberlain push forward with the ball, more attention is placed on them, meaning Firmino has more freedom to pick up pockets of space. It also gives Firmino a chance to drop deeper than usual, as Keita can fill in in a more advanced role. Also, Firmino often has more of an impact on the game when he finds space in deeper areas, as he gets more time on the ball. Firmino has arguably been Liverpool’s best player to start the new campaign, with 3 goals and 3 assists in the Premier League, as well as 3 more assists in the Champions League. He has been playing deeper than ever this season, and because of this; he manages to continuously elude center-backs with his movement. Against a Spurs defence who have looked poor to start the season, Firmino will definitely be expecting to chip in on the attacking end of things.

Tottenham

Tottenham have digressed significantly since the end of last season, and the behind the scenes issues keep stacking up. With many of their players apparently unsettled, it’s no surprise that they aren’t achieving good results, and if this dressing room mess continues, Spurs could be in big trouble in a couple of months. While they sit in 7th place, which isn’t terrible, they have won just 3 of the first 9 league games. Along with this, they have actually been overperforming on expected goals, meaning that unlike a team like Manchester United, their performances haven’t been promising in the slightest. While their defence has been league average, it’s their attack that has really been below par so far, as they have just 10.90 expected goals this season. This means that they rank 15th in this metric, behind teams like Burnley, Wolves, and even bottom side Watford. 

Now, coming up against Liverpool, things could get even worse for them. Their main problem in attack this year, has been their lack of width, with all of their attackers gravitating towards central attacking zones. If they struggle with this again, Tottenham’s play will fall right into Liverpool’s hands, as Liverpool often have strong reinforcements in the center of the pitch. Where Spurs can look to gain an advantage, is in the wide areas. This is due to the attacking nature of Liverpool’s full-backs, and as seen in their past few games, they can be exposed in these positions, in behind their wide defenders. For this reason, a 3-5-2 or 3-4-1-2 might be the best option for Spurs. This is because it not only limits the amount of central attackers, but also allows two wide players in their wing-backs, while the strikers can also look to shift wide on the counter attack.

This provides an important job for Son, who hasn’t been at his best recently. He has often had limited space to work in, as their are other players occupying is preferred areas, and you feel that he might work best in a front two, playing off of Kane in a free role. Another advantage in playing Son in this position, is his experience as a wide man. This means that he will feel comfortable drifting into wider areas when Spurs are looking to counter-attack, and he could be incredibly dangerous if he finds space in behind the full-backs. Also, Son’s individual quality is outrageous as he already has 2 goals and 2 assists in the Premier League this year, despite Spurs struggling, and against a superb backline, Son might be needed to produce a moment of magic.

Another player who could be crucial to Spurs is Tanguy Ndombele, who unlike Son has really proven himself at the beginning of this campaign. Ndombele has been the only major positive for Spurs at the start of this year, as the big money signing has been superb at the heart of midfield. Ndombele is the perfect all-round midfielder, and his stats are impressive in every area. Not only is he making an excellent 4.7 tackles and interceptions per 90, but he is also averaging 1.9 dribbles, as well as 0.8 key passes and 1 shot. In a 3-4-1-2, he definitely won’t be the most defensive midfielder, but in a game like this, against difficult opposition, he will have a lot of defensive work on his hands. Given his strong defensive numbers, he should be able to adapt to this role. Perhaps even more importantly, once he wins back possession he has the ability to progress the ball into more attacking areas and set Spurs off on a quick break. In a game that will likely move at a high pace from front to back, Ndombele’s ability to complete multiple jobs makes him the perfect player to have in this Spurs midfield.

Injuries

This match comes at a great time for Liverpool in terms of injuries, as their whole squad could be fit for this game. While there are a few players who are returning from injury, players such as Alisson and Salah both played midweek against Genk, meaning they should be okay to play in this match. Something to consider though, is Liverpool’s midweek game. In this match, they played a number of their usual starters and something to note in particular, is that their full front three was started, with only Firmino coming off. This could mean a lack of fitness for some of these players, especially Salah who has recently recovered from an injury. Whether or not it will affect them in this game we’ll have to wait and see.

Spurs have to endure the same problem though, as they too played in the Champions League this week. Like Liverpool, they also used a strong lineup in their thrashing of Red Star Belgrade, meaning each team might be forced to rest some players come this weekend’s match. Luckily for Spurs, they are in a strong period of injuries themselves, which has not become the norm over recent years. If all stays the same, only Lloris and Sessegnon will miss this game, with the latter not being a crucial loss. The absence of Lloris, however, could make a big difference, as Gazzaniga is not at the same level as the French shot-stopper. Along with this, Alisson has recently returned for Liverpool, meaning Spurs could be vastly inferior in the goalkeeping area.

Summary

While these sides are far apart in the league table at the moment, this fixture is perhaps more important than ever. With Liverpool on top of the league, they need to continue their incredible start to the season, to make sure they can’t be caught by the brilliant Manchester City team who are behind them, while Tottenham desperately need to win this match, to get their squad back in the right direction. For Tottenham though, they face a historically difficult task, and one that will definitely be daunting for this set of players. Also, given Liverpool will be playing at home, things look bleak for this Spurs side. This is because Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 42 Premier League home matches, while they have won every one of their home games this season. In their 4 home games this year, they have collected all possible 12 points, while they have scored 12 and conceded just 4, having scored 3 goals per game thus far. Their scoring record at Anfield has been incredibly consistent, having scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 11 home matches. Then, when looking at Tottenham’s away form, Liverpool seem almost guaranteed to win this game. Tottenham are winless in each of their last 10 Premier League away games, having lost 8 of these. This is a terrible record which stretches all the way back to January of last year, and much of their poor start to this season is stemming from their incompetence when travelling. Because of this, it’s hard to see a result that goes in Spurs’ favour, and with their bad form in general, as well as their issues behind the scenes, the result looks settled before the game has even begun. While they managed to get back on track this week with a 5-0 win of Red Star, I think Liverpool should be able to dispatch them in this match. I predict 3-1.