GW 5: Liverpool vs. Newcastle

As we move on from the international break, and into gameweek 5 of the 2019/20 Premier League campaign, we have a great early fixture for us on Saturday, with Liverpool against Newcastle starting up our Premier League weekend. There is a clear gap between these sides in terms of quality; however, they have each enjoyed strong starts to the season from their perspectives and both managers have been organizing their squads well. At the moment, Liverpool sit on top of the table with 12 points while Newcastle are in 14th, with 4 points so far. Neither team has lost in their last two games though, and this represents that they are in good form, which should help to make this match more interesting. When these sides have played in the past, Liverpool have often abolished the Magpies having won all of the last three games against them. This includes a 4-0 win when at home last year while it was much closer when at St. James’ Park, where Liverpool scraped by in a 3-2 victory. Liverpool dominated in the game at Anfield, but struggled in the reverse fixture, as Newcastle not only pushed them close in terms of the scoreline, but possibly deserved an even better result. Expected goals had this game at 1.48 to 1.30, indicating that Newcastle were practically matching Liverpool in terms of chance creation. This will serve as a positive coming into this game as it shows that Newcastle do have the ability to push Liverpool close, and it’s all about making the most of the few opportunities that they will create.

Liverpool have started this season just as strongly as they ended the last one, and at the moment they are the only team to have won all of their opening four matches. This is a continuant of the run of 9 games that they won towards the end of last season, meaning they have won their last 13 Premier League games in a row, which is a club record, and it just shows how far they have come in their ability to obtain consistent results. In their most recent match, they faced a difficult test in the ways of Burnley which they passed with flying colors, winning 4-0, and while Newcastle will provide a similar challenge in terms of their conseravative nature, they go about their work much differently. One thing that Newcastle consistently do when facing the bigger sides is to compact their system, which allows very few gaps throughout their defence, especially in the central zones. This could cause Klopp to rethink things. For one, he might want to double up in the wide areas. This would include the winger playing wide, as well as the full-back in order to drag Newcastle’s defenders out of position and open up the field. This will allow for more space for the Liverpool forwards, which is something that Spurs struggled with, while Liverpool will be using the space around them effectively. If Newcastle still sit back and stay in their tight defensive zones, Liverpool can counter by playing an excessive amount of crosses into the area, and eventually you would expect them to prevail, as they did against Arsenal when using this tactic.

This will give a chance for Alexander-Arnold to shine at right-back, and continue his fantastic start to the season. Alexander Arnold already has 2 assists at the beginning of this year, which shows that he is set to match his great playmaking form from last year, while he is averaging an incredible 3.5 key passes per game which puts him right up with the best creators in the league. He also has the second highest expected assists value in the Premier League with 1.92, only surpassed by the superb Kevin De Bruyne. This is very promising for the upcoming season and in particular for this game as If Newcastle do decide to stay compact, with limited pressure, Alexander-Arnold will be able to dominate the match by playing crosses into the area. One of the attacking players that he will be aiming for is Firmino, who has also started this season is superb style as he looks like one of the best in the league at the moment. Firmino has always made his team better, with his off the ball runs, but the difference this season is that he is also getting directly involved with goals which is something that is just being added to games. Part of Firmino’s effectiveness is his ability to drop off, and this should be especially crucial in this match, as he can open up space for Liverpool’s other attackers and help his side to avoid overcrowding in the central attacking areas. This will also allow for players like Salah and Mane to have more space into which they can make runs. This means that Liverpool can still play with the attacking edge that they usually have, despite Newcastle's conservative nature, and the full-backs as well as Firmino, will have crucial roles to play in terms of providing their teammates with alternative options.

This will definitely provide a threat to Newcastle; however, the way that they have been playing recently seems to be relatively effective and they’ll have to hope that they can continue this when facing their biggest challenge yet. After losing in both of their first two matches, they have come back strong, winning against Tottenham 1-0 in gameweek three before drawing with Watford a fortnight ago. Something to note from their start to the season is how strong they have been defensively. They have only conceded 5 goals as of yet, while they have played some adept attacking sides in the ways of Arsenal, Tottenham and Norwich. Expected goals also shows that they deserve their solid defensive record, as their expected goals against value is at 5.59. This is a huge positive coming into this game; however, Liverpool will obviously provide a very different challenge as they are a more experienced attacking side who have more than one route to goal. Like mentioned earlier, Liverpool use their full-backs to create a threat from wide positions and this could require a change in system for Steve Bruce and his men. He will need some form of wide marking so that Liverpool aren’t able to barrage them with crosses into the box and this could include the wing-backs drifting wider than usual or potentially the wingers coming deeper and tracking their opponents. If the wing-backs are forced wide, this will create space for Liverpool’s most dangerous players and therefore you would expect that more defensive work would be placed on the wingers, in order to pressure Liverpool’s full-backs so that it’s harder for them to get crosses off.

This means that Almiron will need to step up in this game in order to contribute more meaningfully whether it be in attack or defence. Almiron has actually had a pretty decent start to the season, and especially in the progression he has been very important. However, given the limited amount of offensive work that Newcastle do, you would expect Almiron to be averaging more than 1.5 tackles and interceptions per game which is currently the case. This means that he might need to drop off a bit in this game, as well as play slightly wider when in defence in order to stay on Robertson at left-back and potentially nullify some of Liverpool’s threat. When he’s going forwards though, you would want him in a more central area, just off of main striker Joelinton, so that he can showcase his creative abilities and be more involved in the attacking play. If Almiron does up his creative stats from the 0.5 key passes that he is making per game, Joelinton could profit. Joelinton will have an extremely difficult job in this match as you wouldn’t expect him to have many chances throughout the 90 minutes meaning he’ll have to be very smart when in possession. Joelinton, like Almiron, is having a relatively slow start to his Premier League career; however, he has scored a goal this season while he is taking 2.3 shots per game which is actually quite impressive considering how little service he is getting. He’ll have to be incredibly clinical in this upcoming match if he is to score while his hold play will also need to be top notch so that his teammates can get involved, and overall, his play could make or break Newcastle’s game as he is essentially their sole attacking threat.

Newcastle could also be hurt by the significant amount of injuries that are currently affecting their squad. Liverpool, on the other hand, are relatively injury free with both Alisson and Keita working to return from long term issues while no new problems have occured. This will give them a big advantage in the match when you consider that Newcastle could be missing as many as six players for this game. This list includes Lejune, Yedlin, Ritchie, Longstaff, Saint-Maximin and Carroll and although some of these players aren’t regular starters in the side, there are a number of absences that could be very costly. When looking at this injury list, the biggest absences seem to be at wing-back, as both of Bruce’s prefered wing-backs in Yedlin and Ritchie will miss this match. This will limit Newcastle’s creative threat even further, as they often rely on crosses from the wide areas when they are attacking, especially through Matt Ritchie, and with less quality on the balls into the box, Joelinton could struggle to find the back of the net. Along with this, box-to-box midfielder Sean Longstaff will be greatly missed as his presence gives Newcastle more progression into the final third, while the quality of Allan Saint-Maximin would also be helpful on the wing although his replacement Atsu has been in good form.

These injury issues will just give Liverpool further confidence when coming into this game, and with a relatively fit squad, you would expect them to demolish most teams near the bottom of the table. Along with this, Liverpool will be at home for this fixture. At Anfield, Liverpool boast a spectacular record as they are undefeated in their last 40 games when playing in front of their own fans. This has now stretched over three seasons, and considering the quality of the opposition that they’ve played in that time, you wouldn’t expect them to crumple here. However, Newcastle have been operating intelligently under Steve Bruce and as we saw in the game they played against Tottenham, they aren’t to be taken lightly. For them, the main focus should be on stopping the delivery into the area from wide positions, as we know that they are strong when defending centrally, and although they might not create too many chances with their style of play, they’ll have to make sure they shut out their opposition. Obviously, this won’t be an easy task. Liverpool have scored 2 or more goals in each of their last 13 Premier League games and they are ruthlessly consistent in attack, with so much pace and power in their front line. Because of this, I think that a clean sheet will be out of reach for Newcastle, while they just don’t have enough fire power in attack to score against such a solid defensive side. I predict 2-0 Liverpool.