GW 37: Chelsea vs. Watford

With only two game-weeks remaining in the Premier League season, fine margins are starting to make the difference all across the league table and one of the more crucial top of the table clashes is coming up for us this weekend as Chelsea take on Watford. Chelsea have managed to sneak back into the top four following a rise in form from them while the opposite has happened to Watford as they’ve dropped off slightly over the last few weeks which has left them in 10th place. Due to this form Chelsea come into the match looking like the favourites when a month or so ago Watford actually looked the stronger side and would have had the backing of most people. In recent times Chelsea have managed to get the better of the Hornets as they’ve won 4 of the last 6 matches between them while Watford have only won once proving that they have struggled against the London side in the past. This includes the reverse fixture where Chelsea won 2-1 in what was a pretty deserved win. In the match Chelsea actually took one less shot than their opponents but they managed two more on target and they also had an expected goals score of 2.20 compared to Watford’s 1.24 showing that they did create the better chances. Also, now that Chelsea are at home it’s quite probable that we’ll see a very similar result.

Chelsea’s season has been a roller-coaster ride with very little consistency throughout their campaign and after going through a good period just a few weeks ago they might be on the decline again after some poor recent results. They have failed to win in all of their last three games in what has been a very disappointing run considering how it looked like they were back to playing at a high standard. This run has included some difficult matches though as they lost to Liverpool before subsequently drawing with both Burnley and Manchester United. Against United, in their last match, they drew 1-1 but they will have been slightly disappointed with the final result of the match given they took 9 more shots than United while they also came out on top in terms of expected goals and had a really good second half. It still wasn’t a stand out performance though and their were a number of problems that need to be addressed particularly in the defence while they also allowed United to have more of the ball which is unusual for a Sarri side. For their next match they could look to bring a stronger defensive presence into their midfield or potentially drop Kante deeper in order to let their left sided midfielder have more freedom. This way the more advanced midfielder can play slightly wider than usual in order to capitalize on Watford’s lack of width while also letting Hazard take up a more central role, drifting infield.

Against United, Kovacic was started in the advanced midfielder role and although he did manage quite a solid performance, making 3 tackles while also completing 4 dribbles he wasn’t progressive enough and his interplay with his surrounding players was slightly disappointing. Sarri could look to play Loftus-Cheek in this role in the next match as Loftus-Cheek is a more attacking player while he also gives Hazard more freedom when he’s played. Along with this, Loftus-Cheek has previously played as a left midfielder meaning he should be adept in playing wider than usual in order to give Hazard space by drawing defenders on to him. Marcos Alonso could also be important on the left hand side and while he hasn’t been at his best this season he still manages to make a difference going forwards. Alonso is actually a very poor defensive left-back and especially in a four man defence he often gets caught out; however, due to Chelsea’s lack of attacking power this season, Sarri might need to bring Alonso back into the side like he did in the last match so that Chelsea find more attacking routes. If Alonso does play he can also contribute in giving Hazard more freedom as the runs that he makes down the wing occupies the wide ares leaving Hazard with more space to cut inside.

Watford have had quite a good season by their standards and considering the caliber of player that they currently have at their club they will have been very happy with what they have achieved so far. Right now they’re in 10th which isn’t brilliant but what’s impressive is that they are only 4 points off 7th place Wolves meaning they still have a chance to move up the table in the final two weeks. They haven’t been at their very best recently though and after two losses and a draw in their last 4 matches they will definitely have to improve on their form if they are still looking to achieve more. Watford’s last match was a disappointing defeat to Wolves and although this was probably expected given how superb Wolves have been this campaign, Watford would’ve wanted at least a point from this relatively equal match. However, Watford were slightly outplayed in the game as Wolves beat them in terms of expected goals 2.44 to 0.90 and although the Hornets did have the majority of the possession they often played into Wolves’ hands. For their next match you’d expect them to continue on with the same system as it’s been very successful so far but the crucial difference will be their lack of possession which should actually be to their advantage. This is because Watford are much better as a counter-attacking side and are actually quite weak when they are forced to have a lot of the ball, like was shown in the last match, preferring to attack on the break.

Someone who will be very important in Watford’s abilities when counter-attacking is Gerard Deulofeu as he is one of the most individually talented players in their squad. This season Deulofeu is making 1.9 successful dribbles per 90 while also completing 1.4 key passes, showing that he is a very capable attacking player and also that he is the main progressor for this Watford side. He tends to play off a main striker, usually Deeney or Gray, dropping deeper to collect the ball before going on a run or playing one of his teammates in. Considering Chelsea love to dominate the ball under Sarri we could see Watford playing long balls for Deeney to nod down to Deulofeu so that Deulofeu can use his individual power to try and make something happen. On the more defensive side, Abdoulaye Doucoure will be in charge of running the midfield for Watford and up against some elite opposition players he’ll need to be on top of his game. Doucoure has been a great defensive midfielder for Watford this season and with 2.9 tackles and interceptions per game you can see that he is a strong defensive powerhouse and that he is capable of limiting players like Kante and Jorginho when they go forwards. However, even more importantly in terms of the context of their upcoming match, Doucoure’s ability to transition the ball from deep is unrivalled in the Watford squad and most of their play goes through him at some point. He is making an average of 55 passes per match while also completing 1 key pass per game and he has the ability to win the ball back for his side before quickly setting them off on the break.

Chelsea have a number of worrying injuries affecting their squad at the moment and because of this they could have a major disadvantage in the match. Both Rudiger and Hudson-Odoi will be unavailable for this match with unknown return dates while Cahill, Ampadu and Willian are also facing smaller issues that could rule them out as well. The most crucial absence here should be Rudiger as he has been rock solid at the back this season and is one of the main reasons that Chelsea have the 4th best defensive record in the league; however, Christensen is an adequate replacement and they shouldn’t be facing a massive downgrade with this replacement. Also, with both Hudson-Odoi and Willian possibly missing, Chelsea have a lack of cover on the wing and they could struggle to find quality in the wide areas especially considering how little football Pedro has played lately. Watford are also suffering slightly from injuries; however, the players missing for them are much less important to their squad. Prodl, Quina and Sinclair are all peripheral figures are currently going through problems but the more worrying issue is that Craig Cathcart could potentially miss out if his knock doesn’t get clearance by Sunday. Cathcart has been a surprisingly important player in the Watford side this season and has actually played more minutes than any other defender for them proving his reliability and influence at the heart of the defence. If Watford were to miss him they might have to play Christian Kabasele instead who is clearly not favoured by Javi Gracia and this could cause Watford’s normally stable backline to be less coherent than usual.

These two teams are some of Europe’s elite but while Chelsea have gotten to their place by obtaining some of the world’s best talent, Watford have put together a great team environment while manager Javi Gracia has done a great job in getting his side to where they are at this stage. This Watford side are actually incredibly underrated as they don’t always play the most attractive football preferring direct routes to goal; however, this has proved to be successful this season and against a team like Chelsea who love to dominate the ball, this pragmatic style could end up very effective. Chelsea are a strong side when at home though managing around 2.16 points per match when at Stamford Bridge while they’ve also won 7 of their last 8 home matches against the Hornets in all competitions. Watford will definitely need to improve on some of their recent performances if they are to make anything of this match and although they are quite a solid away side it’s very hard to see them getting all three points at the bridge. Because of this I’m predicting a 1-1 draw with both teams failing to win yet again.